Investing & Portfolio
Asset allocation, factor investing, global diversification, and the research behind how to actually build a portfolio that works over decades.
199 guides in this topic
Concept13 min read
Classical Liberalism Explained: How It Differs From Liberals, Libertarians, and Conservatives
Why The Economist calls itself liberal while American liberals sit center-left: a primary-source guide to classical liberalism and its modern relatives.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Does the National Debt Cause Inflation? What 150 Years of Data Show
In 18 rich countries since 1870, high public debt did not predict higher inflation. Very large deficits sometimes did. What it means for US debt and your plan.
Concept16 min read
Liberal Techno-Optimism: The Case for Markets, Progress, and a Safety Net
Markets, science, AI and more homes, plus a real safety net. The case for liberal techno-optimism, and why it points DIY investors to the whole market.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Should Young Investors Use Leverage? Ayres and Nalebuff Re-Tested Through 2025
In 112 U.S. careers since 1871, borrowing young at T-bills plus 1.5% beat 100% stocks in 107. At big-broker margin rates it lost in 92. Ayres-Nalebuff retested.
Concept15 min read
Are TIPS Safer Than They Seem? We Re-Ran Elm's Spending-Risk Test
Measured in spending they could fund, rolled 30-year TIPS varied 2.3% a year in 2000-2026 and T-bills 14.7%. What Elm's test shows and where duration matters.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
Bonds Yield 5% Again. Should You Rebalance Your 60/40 Now?
Ben Carlson's ACWI/AGG 60/40, untouched since 2019, is now 77/23. In 1928-2025 data, never rebalancing won half of 10-year windows. What 5% yields change.
Methodology17 min readCalculator
Mean-Variance Optimization Out of Sample: The 1/N Test, Rerun on 21 Years of New Data
In our retest on 10 US industries from Dec 2004 to Aug 2026, no optimizer beat equal weights by a significant margin. Why optimized portfolios disappoint.
Strategy19 min read
Permanent Portfolio vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Cockroach: Who Each One Is For
In 1972-2025 US data, the Golden Butterfly earned 6.1% a year after inflation with a 15% worst drawdown. What drove it, what taxes cost, and who each one suits.
Methodology15 min readCalculator
Do Higher Factor Loadings Mean Higher Expected Returns?
Seven years of returns pin AVUV's value loading to ±0.1. Sixty-three years of factor data put its implied edge over VTI anywhere from 1.5% to 8.1% a year.
Concept15 min read
Fact-Checking JL Collins on The Diary of a CEO
We checked 23 claims from JL Collins's Diary of a CEO interview against the transcript and primary sources. The investing advice holds up; one tax claim fails.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Do Daily Resets Hurt Leveraged ETFs? 100 Years of Data
Volatility drag comes from leverage. 100 years of U.S. data show daily resets beat monthly ones through the 1990s, then cost 2x funds about 1 point a year.
Strategy12 min readCalculator
Is a 5% Treasury Yield Too Good to Be True?
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% on Oct 9, 2026, its first run above 5% since 2007. What it locks in, what tax and inflation take, and who should buy.
Concept15 min readCalculator
Will Government Bonds Blow Up? What the 2026 Sell-Off Means for Your Bond Fund
From January to October 2026, real yields drove 92% of the 10-year Treasury's rise. France is where the debt math bites. What the sell-off means for your bonds.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
VTSAX vs FSKAX: Should You Switch to the Cheaper Index Fund?
Should you sell VTSAX to buy FSKAX? Their 10-year returns are 0.01 points apart. Why switching appreciated shares rarely pays, and when a fund switch does.
Concept13 min readCalculator
School Stock Market Games Reward the Luckiest Bet
In our 30-team, 13-week simulated class contest, leveraged one-stock teams won 69% of games. What school stock market games reward, and what to teach kids.
Strategy12 min readCalculator
Fidelity Cash Management Account: Can SPAXX Replace Your Checking Account?
Interest checking averaged 0.07% in Sep 2026; SPAXX in a Fidelity CMA yielded 3.49% on Oct 6. It trailed 3-month bills by 0.47% over the past year.
Strategy10 min readCalculator
SGOV vs. T-Bills: Is the 0.09% Fee Worth It Over Buying Bills Yourself?
A modeled 4-week T-bill roll returned 3.87% in the year to Aug 2026 vs 3.78% for SGOV, about its fee: ~$45 a year on $50k before tax. When bills win.
Strategy9 min readCalculator
SWVXX vs. SGOV: Should Schwab Cash Go in a Money Fund or a T-Bill ETF?
SGOV returned 3.78% in the year to Aug 2026 vs 3.68% for SWVXX, and 95% of its income is state-exempt. For one modeled CA saver, ~$200/yr more on $50k.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Why Stocks Can Rise When Interest Rates Rise
Higher rates lower present value, all else equal. Yet from 1963 to 2025, U.S. stocks rose in 24 of the 33 years the 10-year yield rose. Why both are true.
Strategy22 min readCalculator
Volatility Targeting: Does Scaling Risk Improve Returns?
On US stocks, 1927-2026, a 12% volatility target lifted the Sharpe ratio from 0.46 to 0.56 but caught a third of the 2020 rebound. Research, risks, simulator.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
BOXX After IRS Notice 2026-62: What Changed and Who Should Still Buy
The IRS named the box-spread ETF tax mechanism and warned rules could be retroactive. What changed for BOXX holders, and when Treasury bills win instead.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Who Moves the Stock Market? Return Chasers, 60/40 Funds, and Inelastic Prices
In one market simulation, return chasers earned about half a 60/40-style fund's Sharpe ratio and momentum traders beat both. Who moves prices, and what to do.
Concept24 min read
Cliff Asness's 10 Investing Pet Peeves, Revisited: What the Evidence Says
Cliff Asness's 2014 list of investing pet peeves, graded against the research since. All ten hold up in substance; four need caveats, from HFT to bond funds.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Do T-Bills Beat Inflation? Barely Before Tax, Usually Not After
From 1928 to 2025, T-bills beat inflation by 0.33% a year. A flat 10% federal tax on the interest erased that. Decades, rolling windows, and when cash fits.
Concept18 min readCalculator
ROIC Explained: What Return on Invested Capital Says About a Business and Its Stock
ROIC shows whether a business earns more than its capital costs. What factor research says about it, and why MOAT showed no profitability tilt in 2012-2026.
Concept16 min read
Beyond Fama-French: q-Factors, AQR's Factors, and Why Your Alpha Depends on the Model
Over 2014-2025, VBR's alpha was -4.7%/yr under CAPM and -0.1% under the q5 model. How Fama-French, q-factor and AQR factor models differ, and which to use.
Concept16 min read
Cheap for a Reason: Value Traps, the Value Premium, and Why Bad Companies Can Be Good Investments
From 1963 to 2026, the cheapest, least profitable US stocks beat the market as a group. Why value traps sink stock pickers but rarely diversified value funds.
Concept16 min read
Quality Minus Junk (QMJ): What the Quality Factor Adds to Small-Cap Value
US QMJ beat a four-factor model by 0.60%/mo in 1957-2016, then went flat. We regressed AVUV, DFSV, IWN and QUAL on it to see which funds already hold quality.
Strategy21 min read
Minimum Volatility and Betting Against Beta: What 15 Years of USMV Show
Nov 2011-Aug 2026: a 78% stock, 22% T-bill mix set to USMV's volatility matched its return and drawdown. The low-beta anomaly, BAB, and when min vol fits.
Strategy11 min read
Small-Cap Value vs. Small-Cap Growth: 99 Years of Data
Fama-French data, 1927-2025: small value 14.2% a year, small growth 8.8%. Since 2004 index funds tied. The tiny growth stocks behind most of the gap.
Concept7 min read
What Percent of SGOV Is State Tax Exempt? 2025 Figures for SGOV, VBIL, USFR, SPAXX and More
SGOV was 95.14% state-tax-exempt for 2025. Issuer figures for 15 cash funds, and why SPAXX's 50.90% counts for nothing in California, New York and Connecticut.
Concept15 min read
Loans Create Deposits: How Banks Create Money, and Why They Still Compete for Your Deposits
When a bank makes a loan, it creates a brand-new deposit. Why banks still fight for your deposits, what limits lending, and what SVB's run showed investors.
Concept15 min read
Tax Losses Can Be Valuable. Losing Money Isn't.
For one modeled investor in the 37% bracket with no gains, a $100,000 loss cut taxes by $18,725 in present value. Why a write-off consoles less than it seems.
Concept20 min read
Do Higher Interest Rates Cause Inflation? What the Evidence Says About the Fed's September Hike
Ackman says the Fed's September hike will raise inflation. Sixty years of identified-shock evidence says tightening lowers it. The live exception is rents.
Concept14 min readCalculator
The Ten-Year Rose 392 Basis Points Since 2021. The Real Yield Rose 395.
On September 23, 2026 the ten-year Treasury yields 5.11% because the real yield is 2.76%, its highest since 2008. What that composition means for stocks.
Concept23 min readCalculator
Who Pays for the Probability?
Across 1.6 million Polymarket accounts, 0.1% captured 67% of profits. What a prediction market price is worth, who pays to produce it, and who bears the cost.
Methodology19 min readCalculator
Inflation Beta Is Not One Number
Stocks' inflation beta is an insignificant -1.3 against headline CPI and -5.6 against core. What the number measures, why it moves, and how to read one.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
How Often Should You Invest? Daily, Weekly, or Monthly
Daily fractional investing spreads a paycheck you already received. For one monthly payee that delay costs about $142 per $100k, plus 21x the tax lots.
Concept14 min readCalculator
Why Macroeconomic Forecasts Are Not an Investment Strategy
Across 63 countries, forecasters saw 5 of 153 recessions a year ahead. And US stocks beat cash two years in three, so a timer's hurdle starts near 70%.
Methodology18 min readCalculator
Which Inflation Are You Hedging?
AQR's own data gives a TIPS fund an inflation-news correlation of +0.05 and breakevens +0.61. A critical read of Inflation Redux, and what hedges what.
Concept14 min read
Good Heuristics, Bad Theorems
We graded thirteen claims from six popular finance writers against primary sources. One fails on its own arithmetic. Three criticisms of them also failed.
Concept11 min read
Investing at All-Time Highs: Better for Five Years, Worse for Twenty
Barry Ritholtz calls the data unequivocal. Vanguard's own numbers show higher returns after all-time highs at 1, 3 and 5 years, and lower at 10 and 20.
Concept12 min readCalculator
What Discount Rate Belongs on Social Security?
Social Security is an inflation-indexed lifetime annuity. On SSA's factors, waiting to 70 beats 62 only below 2.3% real for a man, 3.4% for a woman. TIPS pay 2.9%.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
What $121,281 of Harvested Losses Was Worth
Mr. Money Mustache reports $121,281 of losses harvested and $48,000 saved. The $3,000 annual limit caps how much of that could reach ordinary income at 40%.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
What Wealthfront's 9.8% Return Actually Measures
Wealthfront reports 9.80% a year since 2012 at risk score 9. Its own page also reports 4.80% at the most conservative score, which is what the headline measures.
Concept11 min read
Is Locking In Today's TIPS Yields Market Timing?
The cost of a 30-year inflation-adjusted income floor fell 42% since 2021. Acting on a price you can see is a different decision from forecasting one.
Concept13 min readCalculator
Is VT the Most Diversified ETF?
VT holds about 10,000 stocks. From 2010 to 2026 its realized volatility ran within 0.2 points of a 500-stock S&P 500 fund. Diversified against which risk?
Concept15 min read
Morningstar Bought CRSP: Did VTI Change?
Morningstar bought CRSP; VTI and VTSAX were renamed July 29, 2026. What changed, what didn't, and why Morningstar now rates a fund tracking its own index.
Strategy12 min readCalculator
QQQ vs. QQQM: Which Is Better for Long-Term Investors in 2026?
QQQM costs 0.15% to QQQ's 0.18% and tracked closer through Aug 2026. Why the Dec 2025 conversion makes older comparisons stale, and when not to switch.
Concept11 min read
TQQQ vs. QQQ: How 3x Daily Leverage Compounds Over Time
TQQQ seeks 3x the Nasdaq-100 for one day, then resets. In 2022 it fell 79.03% to QQQ's 32.51%. What daily reset does over longer periods, per the prospectus.
Strategy9 min readCalculator
SGOV vs. VBIL: What Vanguard's Cheaper T-Bill ETF Is Worth
VBIL charges 0.06% to SGOV's 0.09% and was 100% Treasury income to SGOV's 95.14%. For one modeled California holder that gap is worth about $36 a year on $100k.
Concept22 min readCalculator
What It Actually Costs to Launch an ETF
Published white-label pricing puts an ETF launch near $50k and $200k+ a year to run. The marginal platform fee also sets a floor below which no fee breaks even.
Methodology24 min readCalculator
We Open-Sourced a TALS Simulator: Why More Harvested Losses Don't Mean More Wealth
In one synthetic zero-alpha simulation, a 250/150 book harvested 7.2x the losses of long-only and ended $427k behind it in median after-tax wealth. Here is why.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Will the AI Boom Push Up Mortgage Rates?
A podcast pegs AI borrowing at $5T through 2029 and rates 250 bp higher. At a published deficit elasticity the same borrowing is worth about 0.7 pp on a mortgage.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
SPAXX vs. SGOV: Which Is Better for Cash at Fidelity?
SPAXX pays your bills automatically; SGOV yielded more after tax at Aug 2026 rates, up to ~$484/yr on a modeled $100k in California. Which cash goes where?
Strategy12 min readCalculator
Best Fidelity Core Position: SPAXX vs. FZFXX vs. FCASH vs. FDIC Sweep
On Aug 31, 2026, SPAXX paid 3.33% while Fidelity's FDIC sweep paid 1.84% and FCASH 1.82%. Which core position to pick, by account type and state tax.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
Who Teaches You About Money? Duke, Edward Jones, and the Case for Independent Financial Education
Edward Jones' logo is on Coach K Court. Its disclosures call revenue sharing a potential conflict of interest. How to read a sponsored financial education deal.
Concept21 min readCalculator
How Much of a Ten-Year Treasury Yield Is Risk Compensation?
The NY Fed split a 4.77% ten-year in Aug 2026 into 3.98% expected short rates and 0.79% term premium. What the 0.79 pays for, and what it costs a homebuyer.
Strategy17 min read
Does Trend Following Work on Crypto? The Evidence, the Traps, and How to Test It Yourself
In one 2017 to 2025 test, a crypto trend rule cut the deepest loss from 84% to 15%, while plain volatility targeting captured most of the improvement.
Concept22 min readCalculator
What a 60/40 Portfolio Really Owns
Two portfolios can both be 60/40 and hold very different risk. What sits inside the 40, why 2008 and 2022 ranked it differently, and who gains from the label.
Concept22 min readCalculator
Personal Finance Gurus vs. Economists: When Simple Rules Beat Textbook Models
A Yale professor checked 50 popular finance books against economic models. One scorecard row agrees outright, and one benchmark row contradicts its own source.
Strategy19 min readCalculator
Where to Hold International Stocks: Taxable or Tax-Advantaged?
Only 58.5% of VXUS's 2025 dividends were qualified, but sheltering it forfeits the foreign tax credit. How to decide at the household level, with a calculator.
Strategy21 min readCalculator
Tail-Risk Hedging: Puts, CAOS, HIDE, and the Managed-Futures Alternative
Rolling put protection returned 7.7% vs 10.8% for the S&P 500 from July 1986 to May 2025. What tail hedges cost, which tail each covers, what to use instead.
Strategy23 min readCalculator
Alpha Architect ETFs: QVAL, QMOM, and the Case for Concentrated Factors
How QVAL, QMOM, IVAL and IMOM stack up against Avantis, DFA and Vanguard, and what six-factor regressions show each fund's tilt actually delivered.
Strategy26 min readCalculator
BOXX ETF Explained: Box Spreads, Tax Advantages, and the Tradeoffs
BOXX turns T-bill interest into deferred capital gains. The federal case is real, state taxes cut the other way, and the Section 1258 question is unresolved.
Strategy24 min readCalculator
Box Spread Loans: What They Save Depends on the Rate You're Escaping
A short SPX box spread borrows near wholesale rates. Against double-digit retail margin the gap is over five points. Against a cheap broker's margin, tiny.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Boomer Candy: The High-Yield Investments That Turn Your Portfolio Into an Options Trade
Goldman bought both sides in five months. What buffered and covered-call ETFs actually sell, and why an advertised buffer isn't what a mid-period buyer gets.
Concept21 min readCalculator
Sports Betting vs. Investing: Where the Expected Return Comes From
Sportsbooks held 10.2% of the $166.94B wagered in 2025. What the 2026 household research says about where betting money comes from, and where it belongs.
Concept18 min readCalculator
The Rise of Avantis: How Two DFA Veterans Built a $150 Billion Factor Shop in Seven Years
Avantis went from launch to $150 billion in under seven years, and AVUV overtook VBR as the largest small-cap value ETF. What actually drove the rise.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Yes, an Unrealized Loss Is Still a Loss
The S&P 500 reclaimed its 1972 real high in 1984. A retiree drawing 4% was at 39 cents on the dollar and never recovered, without ever panic selling.
Methodology21 min readCalculator
Dividend Growth vs. Small-Cap Value: What the Factor Regressions Show
We regressed VIG, SCHD, VYM, NOBL and AVUV on the five Fama-French factors. Dividend growth's value loading is 0.002. That changes the comparison.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Where 155 Years of Stock Returns Actually Came From
We ran the decomposition on Shiller's 1871-2026 data. Dividends supplied 4.3% of the 7.1% real return, earnings growth 2.1%, and multiples 0.6%.
Strategy22 min readCalculator
Structured Notes: Who Is on the Other Side of Your 15% Coupon?
Citi valued its own 15.25% NVIDIA note at $987.60 per $1,000. We rebuilt that number from the prospectus, and found the note keeps a quarter of the gain.
Concept20 min readCalculator
The ABCs of Systematic and Factor Investing
Alpha to zoo: a plain-English A-to-Z of factor investing. Why 65% of 452 anomalies failed replication, and which exposures survive costs, taxes, and you.
Concept16 min readCalculator
There Are Only Four Things You Can Do With a Capital Gain
Pay it, give it away, exclude it, or defer it. Discounted at 5%, waiting 20 years turns a 23.8% tax bill into about 9% today. Only two of the four reach zero.
Concept20 min readCalculator
Korea Listed 2x Samsung ETFs in May. Ten Weeks Later They Were Down 39% While Samsung Fell 12%.
South Korea's 2026 crash shows three ways to lose while being right about a business: a concentrated index, a daily-reset product, and a margin call one day before the rebound.
Concept20 min readCalculator
Did Stocks Double During the Civil War? The Index Rose 129%. Purchasing Power Rose 24%.
Northern share prices rose 129% while consumer prices rose 85%. Vietnam repeated it: +81% nominal, +0.9% real. What war-return tables leave out, and what to do instead.
Concept24 min readCalculator
Perpetual Futures: At 10x on Bitcoin, More Than a Third of Correct Calls Get Liquidated First
Funding is quoted on notional and paid out of your margin: 0.01% per 8 hours is 109.5% a year at 10x. What that costs, and why direction is not enough.
Methodology14 min readCalculator
The AI Hedge Fund Everyone Was Copying Last Filed a Book That Was 62% Puts
Situational Awareness's last 13F reported $13.7B, and 62% of it was put options. What the form leaves out, and what the copycat research actually finds.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Your Company Stock Has to Beat the Market by 3 Points a Year to Be Worth Holding
On a low-basis $1M position, deferring tax is worth about 1.2 points a year while the added volatility costs 4.1. That gap is what your stock must beat.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Is the S&P 500 a Momentum Trade? I Measured It.
Momentum funds load +0.42 on the momentum factor. Measured over the same window, the S&P 500 loads zero. What 425 rolling windows say about the claim.
Concept22 min readCalculator
HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure: The Whole Strategy Is a Bet on One Number
TMF has compounded at -6.34% a year since 2009. The 55/45 UPRO/TMF strategy works until stock-bond correlation crosses about +0.4, and nobody can tell you in advance where that line sits.
Concept19 min readCalculator
Austria's 100-Year Bond: What Actually Happens If You Hold It to Maturity
The famous 75% loss is measured from the 2020 peak. What the math says about duration, convexity, and actually holding a century bond through to 2120.
Concept14 min readCalculator
What "Tax Alpha" Actually Means, and Why 1% a Year Is the Wrong Number
The headline 1.08% is before costs and falls to 0.82% with the wash-sale rule. The same harvested loss can be worth $238 or $12,630 depending only on the exit.
Concept22 min readCalculator
The Black-Scholes Equation: What It Does, What It Assumes, and Where It Breaks
The model removes forecasting from option pricing, which is why expected return vanishes from it. How it works, what implied volatility means, and where it fails.
Concept20 min readCalculator
A 1,000% Upside and a 100% Downside Does Not Make It a Good Bet
The viral claim needs a 9.1% win rate just to break even. What a real option must do to pay, what retail traders actually earn, and when options make sense.
Concept22 min readCalculator
Ten Investing Numbers You Should Not Memorize
One is genuinely useful. Two fail arithmetic you can check on a phone. Two have no source at all. We graded all ten viral numbers against the research.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Every Portfolio Is Long/Short, Even If You Never Short a Stock
Your weights and the benchmark's both sum to 100%, so every overweight is financed by an underweight. What that means, what Active Share can and cannot tell you.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Profits Without Cash? What Cash-Based Operating Profitability Really Tells Investors
A famous 2016 paper shows the profit backed by cash predicted stock returns and the accrual part did not. What that means for DIY investors, Avantis, and DFA.
Concept19 min readCalculator
Five Stocks Are Not Safer Than an Index Fund, Even If You Know Them
Just 4% of stocks created all US market wealth above T-bills. Why five researched picks widen outcomes instead of shrinking risk, and when concentration works.
Concept18 min read
Bogleheads Bingo: Why Simple Investing Creates the Same Hard Questions Forever
The portfolio may be passive. The investor never is. Every square of the meme, annotated: what each debate really asks, and which ones actually matter.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Return on Hassle: When Investment Optimization Stops Being Worth It
A 20bp optimization that costs $2,000 a year in effort needs $1M of assets just to break even. A framework for when the next optimization is not worth it.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
The Merton Share: Can a Formula Beat 100% Stocks, or Just Size Risk Better?
28% of finance-trained subjects went bust betting on a 60% coin. The Merton share sizes risk with a formula. Does the dynamic version beat 100% stocks?
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Are Collectibles Really Investments? The Math Behind Cards, Whiskey, Wine, and Antiques
A $4,800 whiskey bottle has to sell for $11,109 in 10 years just to match a 7% portfolio. What the research says about cards, wine, and art as investments.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Missing the Market's Best Days: What the Famous Chart Leaves Out
Skip each decade's 10 best days since 1930 and 19,975% becomes 45%. Skip the 10 worst too and you beat buy-and-hold. Why that chart proves less than it seems.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Can You Really Earn 20-30% a Year? A Return Reality Check for DIY Investors
At 20% a year, $1 million compounds into over $9 billion in 50 years. So why do reliable 20-30% return claims collapse under scrutiny, and what should DIY investors expect?
Concept14 min readCalculator
Life-Cycle Finance: A Financial Plan for Your Entire Life
Four Nobel laureates built the theory of lifetime saving and spending. Why does retirement planning still run on rules of thumb like the 4% rule?
Concept9 min read
Are Ben Carlson's Best Inflation Hedges Actually Inflation Hedges?
Ben Carlson says the best inflation hedges are a good job, a fixed-rate mortgage, and stocks. Two of the three aren't technically hedges. Here's what the research says.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
VBR vs AVUV: Why Expense Ratio Isn't the Whole Small-Cap Value Story
VBR is cheaper, but AVUV targets deeper small-cap value with profitability screens. What the research says, how VIOV and VTWV compare, and whether switching is worth the fee and tax.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
Compensated vs. Uncompensated Risk: How to Spend Your Risk Budget
High risk tolerance gives you a bigger risk budget. Spend it on risks you get paid to bear, like the broad market, and keep speculation small enough that a total loss can't break your plan.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
Does GPIQ Beat the S&P 500? Why a Nasdaq Covered-Call Fund's 'Monthly Cash Kicker' Is Not Alpha
Does GPIQ beat the S&P 500? On Goldman's own numbers it trailed since inception. Why the 'cash kicker' and '99% tax-deferred' pitch don't add wealth.
Concept14 min readCalculator
Growth Stocks Do Not Mean Higher Expected Returns
A stock growing earnings 20% a year can still return only the market average once its multiple normalizes. Why growth describes a company, and the price you pay drives what you actually earn.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
When a Value ETF Becomes a Tech Bet: VLUE, Micron, and Factor-Label Risk
A value ETF returned 82% in a year while holding 25% in Micron and ~40% tech. Why strong returns can hide concentration, what the index methodology did, and how to check if your value fund actually diversifies you.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Why I Avoid QQQ: Great Companies, an Arbitrary Index, and a Tax-Aware Way Out
QQQ holds great companies chosen by an arbitrary rule: where they list. Why I skip the Nasdaq-100, what I own instead, and how to unwind big QQQ gains tax-aware.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Why I Avoid SCHD: Dividends, Taxes, and the Case for Systematic Value Funds
SCHD is a good fund I do not own. What its dividend screen buys, what a 3.2% forced yield costs in taxes, and why I tilt with AVUV, AVDV, and AVGV instead.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
If Ben Felix Uses One Fund, Do You Need Ten? When Diversification Becomes Clutter
Ben Felix holds his public equities in one fund. When is one fund enough, when do taxes justify more, and where does diversification turn into clutter?
Strategy12 min readCalculator
SGOV vs USFR: Which Treasury Cash ETF Is Better?
SGOV and USFR are both Treasury cash ETFs, but not the same fund. SGOV holds 0-3 month T-bills; USFR holds floating rate notes. How they differ, how each is taxed, and which to pick, with an after-tax yield calculator.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Position Sizing: The Skill That Matters More Than Picking Winners
A 100x stock taught me that being right is worthless unless the bet is sized to matter. What the evidence, poker, and the Kelly criterion say about sizing speculative bets.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Is Factor Investing Dead? What the Evidence Says for DIY Investors
Factors are not dead, but the durable premium is smaller than the backtests and much of it is eaten by costs. What the research says and how to size a tilt you can hold.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
AVUV vs BSVO vs DFSV: Which Small-Cap Value ETF Is Best for DIY Investors?
AVUV is the cheaper, more liquid default; DFSV is the closest substitute and tax-loss partner; BSVO is the deeper-value specialist. Factor exposure, fees, capacity, and tax.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
Will AI Lower Interest Rates? Why DIY Investors Shouldn't Bet Their Plan on It
AI can lower inflation, but a productivity boom can raise the real neutral rate by about a point. Why experts split, and how to build a plan that survives either way.
Strategy20 min readCalculator
Rental Property vs. Global Index Funds: How Demographics, Leverage, Taxes, and Diversification Change the Math
Index funds are the better default for most DIY investors; a rental is a leveraged local business that must clear a hurdle. How demographics, leverage, and taxes decide it.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Should You Invest in Cryptocurrency? A Practical Allocation Guide for DIY Investors
For most DIY investors, 0% crypto is reasonable; 1-2% is the evidence-based range for those who want exposure. Why sizing, not the yes/no debate, is the real question.
Strategy17 min read
The Best Finance Books for DIY Investors: What to Read, What to Skip, and When to Move On
An opinionated, tiered, evidence-based reading list: the durable core, the gateways you graduate from, deeper portfolio books, history for humility, and what to skip.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
The Problem With "Just Invest in Index Funds"
There are more US fund products (12,843) than companies. Indexing is the right default, but which index, how much risk, and for which goals is the real work. With a calculator.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
I'm an Accredited Investor. I Still Use Index ETFs.
Accredited investor status changes which private deals you can be offered. It does not make them better, more suitable, or higher returning. Plus accredited vs. qualified purchaser, the evidence, and a suitability calculator.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
Should You Invest Like Yale? The Endowment Model vs. a Boglehead Portfolio
Yale returned 11.1% in 2025 with private equity and hedge funds. Should you copy it? Why the endowment model works for Yale, why Swensen told individuals to index, and a hurdle-rate calculator.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Should Retirees With Social Security or a Pension Hold More Stocks?
Reliable lifetime income changes how much risk your portfolio can take. When guaranteed income means more stocks, when a fixed nominal pension does not, and how RMDs fit. With a floor-coverage calculator.
Concept15 min readCalculator
Do Most S&P 500 Returns Really Come From Dividends?
Many investors hear that 75% of S&P 500 returns come from dividends. The real attribution is about 31% to 33%. What actually drives long-run stock wealth, with a calculator.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Savings Rate vs Investment Returns: What Matters More Depends on Your Portfolio Size
Savings rate or investment returns: which matters more? It depends on your contribution-to-portfolio ratio. The math, the five-stage lifecycle, and a calculator that names your current bottleneck.
Concept16 min readCalculator
The Rebalancing Bonus: How a Volatile Diversifier Can Lift a Portfolio's Return
A volatile, low-correlation diversifier can raise a portfolio's compound return when you rebalance, even when it looks bad on its own. The math, the evidence, and the limits.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
AVUV vs AVDV: U.S. vs International Small-Cap Value ETFs
AVUV (0.25%) tilts U.S. small value against the Russell 2000 Value; AVDV (0.36%) does the same abroad, adding currency risk. How they differ; when to own both.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Are We in an AI Bubble? William Bernstein's Four Signs and Why Investors Should Stay Humble
Are we in an AI bubble? You can't know in real time. Bernstein's four signs are a behavioral checklist for spotting a mania. A skeptic's guide with an exposure stress test.
Strategy20 min readCalculator
AQR Funds for Bogleheads: When Expensive Complexity Might Actually Be Worth It
AQR funds cost 50x a Vanguard index fund. When is that justified? An evidence-based look at QMHIX, QSPIX, Fusion, and tax-aware long/short for the cost-conscious DIY investor.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Should You Hold REITs? Real Estate Tilt or Unnecessary Sector Bet
You already own REITs at market weight inside VTI and VT. A dedicated sleeve is an optional tilt. When it makes sense, and which account to hold it in.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Should You Own Emerging-Market Stocks? The Case for Market Weight
Emerging markets are 12% of the global market, trade at a forward P/E of 12 vs 19 for developed markets, and just returned 51% in a year. How much should you own?
Concept16 min readCalculator
But What About Japan? The Lost Decades, Small Value, and the Case for Global Diversification
Global stocks rose 1,400% while Japan's gained 49% from 1987 to 2018. What Japan's lost decades teach about single-country risk, value, vintage risk, and global diversification.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Are Bonds Still Good Diversifiers? It Depends What Risk You're Hedging
Bonds hedge recessions and struggle in inflation shocks. Where 13 assets sat in four economic environments since 1972, and a stress test with real returns.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Stock Valuation for DIY Investors: Useful Tool or Expensive Illusion?
Damodaran's SpaceX valuation, the DCF method, and an interactive 'what has to be true?' explorer. Why valuation is worth learning but stock-picking rarely beats indexing.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
The Hungry Caterpillar Portfolio: A Silly Name for a Serious All-Weather Idea
A bedtime-story joke portfolio that eats small-cap value, bonds, gold, T-bills, and trend. Over 10 years it earned less than 60/40, with half the drawdown.
Concept17 min readCalculator
The Risk Parity Reality Check: What DIY Investors Should Know Before Levering Bonds
A 60/40 looks diversified, but equities can drive 90% of its risk. What risk parity really is, whether to lever it, and when it beats a simple Bogleheads portfolio.
Concept15 min read
The S&P 500 Is Passive for You, But Not Passive Under the Hood
The S&P 500 is not the 500 biggest stocks or the whole market. It is a committee-governed large-cap index. Why it became the baseline, and how VOO, IVV, SPY, VTI, and VT differ.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
The Simplified Engineer Investor Portfolio: A 3-Fund All-Equity Portfolio With a Global Value Tilt
36% VTI, 24% VXUS, 40% AVGV: a Boglehead core with a global value tilt. The X-Ray, the equity style box, the evidence, and an interactive tilt explorer. Who it fits and who it does not.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
How to Sell Stocks, Mutual Funds, and ETFs Tax-Efficiently: SpecID and Tax Lots
Your broker's default cost-basis method silently picks your taxable gain. Learn SpecID, FIFO vs HIFO vs average cost vs MinTax, and how lot selection cuts the tax when you sell or rebalance.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
If Dimensional Gets Sold, Should Factor Investors Care? The Hidden Risk of Bespoke ETFs in Taxable Accounts
A rumored DFA sale is no reason to panic-sell, but it exposes a risk DIY investors miss: fund-sponsor and strategy-drift risk, plus the tax lock-in of bespoke factor ETFs in taxable accounts.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
How Financial Sales Pitches Hide the Real Cost of Investing: A Red-Flag Guide
The most heavily marketed financial products are often the most profitable for the seller. Learn the five marketing tactics, six risk lenses, and a hurdle calculator to evaluate any product.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Robinhood's Agentic Trading: Should You Let an AI Agent Trade Your Account?
Robinhood now lets an AI agent trade a dedicated account. The investing evidence on agentic trading, the conflict of interest, and who it actually fits.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Cash-Secured Puts: Getting Paid to Buy a Stock, or to Take Its Downside?
A cash-secured put commits you to buy at a price you chose. The Micron case, the index put-writing evidence, the tax math, and who it actually fits.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
90/10 vs. 60/40: Is the WSJ Right That You Own Too Many Bonds?
A WSJ opinion piece says wealthy investors should hold 90% stocks and 10% cash. A portfolio researcher asks: why not add Treasury futures on top? The evidence for and against each approach.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Portfolio Risk Is More Than Volatility: Drawdowns, Pain Index, and Ulcer Index for DIY Investors
Volatility describes how returns vary. Pain describes how it feels to live through them. Learn when each risk metric matters: standard deviation, max drawdown, time underwater, Pain Index, and Ulcer Index, with a side-by-side calculator using 98 years of Damodaran return data.
Strategy14 min read
Bengen vs. Bengen: Should Retirees Outsource Equity Risk to a Third-Party Signal?
Bengen's 1994 paper warned against pulling back from stocks after a bad early market. His 2026 recommendation moves toward doing exactly that, via third-party perceived-risk services. What the evidence supports, and what it doesn't.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
Should Long-Term Index Investors Use Stop-Loss Orders? Usually No, and Here's the Math
Stop-loss orders feel like portfolio insurance. The evidence says they usually aren't. What stops do, what they don't, and when they actually help.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
When to Sell a Winning Stock: The Question Without a Good Answer
Buying is the easy half. Selling a lucky winner means navigating taxes, anchoring, regret, and concentration. What the evidence supports.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
Donate Appreciated Stock or Use a DAF? The Tax Math and Where the Strategy Is Oversold
Donating appreciated stock is tax-efficient. A DAF can be a useful wrapper. Neither makes charity free. The mechanics, the 2026 OBBB changes (0.5% AGI floor, 35% deduction cap, $1k/$2k non-itemizer cash), and an after-tax cost calculator.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
The Treasury Bond Fantasy: Can You Actually Live Off U.S. Government Interest Forever?
A viral tweet imagines putting your entire net worth into Treasury bonds and living off the coupons. The math is seductive and the implementation is mostly wrong. After-tax-real income, TIPS, I-bonds, and an interactive calculator that shows what the coupon actually buys.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
AVGV Review: A One-Ticker Global Value Tilt for DIY Investors
AVGV bundles a global value, profitability, and smaller-cap tilt into one ETF that rebalances itself. A deep-dive review and a calculator comparing AVGV to a DIY basket of Avantis ETFs.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Mega-IPOs and Your Index Funds: How Free Float Decides What SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Mean for VTI, VOO, and QQQ
A trillion-dollar IPO with a 5% public float is not the same as a trillion-dollar IPO with 90%. Free-float adjustment, seasoning rules, and the methodology differences between the Morningstar, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 indexes decide how much exposure your index fund actually takes. Includes a Mega-IPO Index Impact Calculator.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Do You Actually Need Direct Indexing?
Direct indexing is heavily marketed to high earners, but ETF tax-loss harvesting already captures most of the value for many. A skeptical primer comparing ETF TLH, long-only DI, and long/short TALS, with an interactive decay visualizer.
Concept15 min readCalculator
The Risk-Free Rate Is Your Hurdle Rate: How to Use Treasuries and TIPS as the Starting Point for Every Investment
At 5.03% nominal and 2.74% real on May 12 2026, Treasury and TIPS yields set the hurdle every risky asset has to clear. The framework, the common mistakes, and a Hurdle Rate Check calculator.
Concept16 min readCalculator
Fama-French HML Explained: What the Value Factor Means for DIY Investors
HML is the academic version of value investing: a transparent, rules-based long-short factor that asks whether cheap stocks outperform expensive ones. What the evidence says, how it differs from AQR and Avantis, and a Value Tilt Pain Test calculator.
Concept14 min readCalculator
The Stock Market Rewards Optimists, But Not the Naïve Ones
Elroy Dimson's Rational Reminder interview, distilled. Easy data bias, U.S. exceptionalism, the GDP-vs-returns gap, and a stress tester that shows how much your plan depends on the equity risk premium.
Concept15 min readCalculator
The Engineer's Guide to Systematic Investing
Most people expect investing to be about having an opinion. Systematic investing is about having a process. The evidence, the levels ladder, and the friction calculator that quantifies how small mistakes compound.
Strategy13 min readCalculator
How Often Should You Rebalance Your Portfolio? An Evidence-Based Answer
Vanguard's 1926-2009 data shows monthly, quarterly, and annual rebalancing produce near-identical risk-adjusted returns. The real questions are bands, cash flow, and taxes. With an interactive checker.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
Futures Yield Explained: What RSSY Actually Owns
RSSY is not a high-yield ETF. It stacks U.S. equity exposure with a systematic futures carry strategy. Here is what futures yield actually is, what the prospectus discloses, and how the live track record compares to the S&P 500.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Farmland and Timberland Investing: Real Diversifiers or Expensive Illiquidity?
Farmland and timber are real asset classes, but the wrapper is the catch. See what platform fees, lockups, and taxes do to your net return vs. public REITs.
Concept10 min readCalculator
Shareholder Yield: Why Dividend Yield Alone Is Incomplete
Dividend yield misses most of how US companies actually return cash. Boudoukh-Michaely-Richardson-Roberts (2007) showed net payout yield (dividends + buybacks - issuance) has stronger predictive power. With a Net Payout Yield Decomposer.
Concept13 min readCalculator
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy: Why GDP Growth Doesn't Predict Stock Returns
The US is 26% of global GDP and 63% of MSCI ACWI. Ritter (2005) found cross-country GDP-equity correlation is negative. Five links separate GDP from per-share return, and a GDP-to-Stock-Return Bridge calculator walks every one.
Concept14 min readCalculator
Does the Fed Really Set Interest Rates? Yield Curves, Term Premium, and r-Star Explained
The Fed sets one rate (FFR target). Everything else is markets. The yield curve = expected short rates + term premium, r-star is unobservable, mortgage rates aren't Fed funds + spread. With a Bond Duration Shock + Reinvestment Risk calculator.
Methodology18 min readCalculator
The R² Trap: Why Rolling P/E vs. 10-Year Return Charts Are Less Certain Than They Look
Viral P/E vs. 10-year return charts show R² of 73% to 81%. In 5,000 simulated markets where valuation predicts nothing, the median R² was still 25% to 46%.
Strategy12 min readCalculator
You Have One Household Portfolio, Not One Per Account
Account labels are wrappers; risk and return live at the household level. Reichenstein after-tax, Viceira human capital, the asset-location 80/20, and a Household X-Ray calculator with location flags.
Concept13 min readCalculator
Modern Portfolio Theory for Real Life: Stop Judging Funds in Isolation
Markowitz's portfolio choice for individual investors. Two-asset variance with correlation, the 'correlations go to one' supplement, the marginal-fund test, and a portfolio impact calculator.
Concept14 min readCalculator
Personal Leverage: Margin, Leveraged ETFs, Lifecycle Theory, and Forced Selling
How leverage relates to MPT and Sharpe, what Ayres-Nalebuff actually argued, FINRA Reg T and 25% maintenance, the margin-call drawdown formula, daily-reset path dependency, tax wrinkles, and a Margin Stress Test calculator.
Concept12 min readCalculator
RMW Explained: The Profitability Factor, Out-of-Sample Evidence, and Avantis vs Dimensional
The Fama-French RMW factor, Novy-Marx's gross profitability, out-of-sample evidence (Wahal, Linnainmaa-Roberts, Harvey-Liu-Zhu, McLean-Pontiff), the Avantis-vs-Dimensional cash-vs-operating disagreement, and a tilt + tracking-error calculator.
Concept12 min readCalculator
The Wealth Ladder: Six Levels, the 0.01% Rule, and Why It's a Map Not a GPS
Nick Maggiulli's six wealth levels, the 0.01% rule, UBS distribution data, and the liquidity / age / geography corrections peer book reviews skip. With total-vs-liquid calculator.
Strategy15 min readCalculator
Tax-Aware Long-Short: Providers, Minimums, and Whether the Tax Alpha Is Real
Frec sells 140/40 long-short from $100k at 0.50%; AQR Flex SMAs typically start at $1M via advisors. What TALS losses are worth, and who should skip it.
Concept10 min read
What Real Return Should You Assume for Stocks? About 5%, Not 7%
The popular 7% real figure is U.S.-only and often quoted as an arithmetic mean. The globally diversified geometric historical mean is closer to 5% real. Here is where each number comes from, why the gap matters for your planning, and what to do about it.
Concept13 min readCalculator
The Problem With Buy the Dip: Why Wasn't the Money Already Invested?
AQR tested 196 buy-the-dip rules; most lost. Vanguard, Dimensional, PWL, and Morningstar agree. The empirical case for investing today, with a cost-of-waiting calculator.
Concept12 min readCalculator
Just Keep Buying: A Strong Habit, Not a Complete Plan
Nick Maggiulli's accumulation rule, what it gets right, the savings-vs-returns crossover most peer posts miss, and which dollars it doesn't apply to. With calculator.
Concept17 min readCalculator
Do Stock Valuations Still Matter? What CAPE Tells You About the Next Decade
CAPE near 40 doesn't mean sell. It means lower your forward return assumptions. The academic evidence on valuation ratios as long-horizon return forecasts, the valid criticisms of CAPE, and an interactive calculator for your own assumptions.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Do 200 Years of Stock Returns Still Matter? Yes, but Not as a Forecast
Two centuries of returns show regimes, not a clean 6-7% real constant. McQuarrie's corrections, the railroad case, and terminal wealth across five regimes.
Concept13 min readCalculator
Stocks Usually Win. "Usually" Is Not a Financial Plan.
Stocks lost to bonds for 20, 41, and even 68 years in a row. Your retirement plan needs to survive that scenario. Here's what 220 years of data show.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Do You Need Managed Futures? An Evidence-Based Look at Trend Following, Return Stacking, and the Cockroach Portfolio
Trend-following managed futures can diversify across regimes, but they're not magic. Here's the evidence, the tradeoffs, and who should and shouldn't use them.
Strategy17 min readCalculator
Covered Calls Are Not Free Income: What XYLD, QYLD, JEPI, and JEPQ Actually Cost You
Covered-call ETFs distribute 8-12% per year while the underlying strategy earns far less. Here's the academic evidence, the tax drag, and who they actually fit.
Strategy18 min readCalculator
Do You Need Return Stacking? A Hurdle-Rate Framework for Portable Alpha
Return-stacked ETFs (NTSX, RSSB, RSST, SPLS) put two return streams on each dollar. Two tests decide whether one helps: its cost hurdle and its effect on risk.
Concept18 min readCalculator
Should You Buy IPO Stocks? Why the "Ground Floor" Is Often the Exit
Mega-IPOs from SpaceX to OpenAI are coming. Here's the academic evidence on IPO returns, the first-day-pop trap, and what indexers actually own.
Concept14 min readCalculator
Most Stocks Lose to T-Bills. The Market Still Wins.
58% of U.S. stocks since 1926 lost to Treasury bills lifetime. Just 4% account for all stock-market wealth. Here's why broad diversification wins mathematically.
Concept17 min read
Stocks Are Always Risky: The Equity Premium Exists for a Reason
Long horizons do not repeal risk. Eleven of 39 markets studied since the 1920s suffered a permanent break, and Germany lost 88% in real terms across WWII.
Concept12 min readCalculator
VTI vs. VOO: Which Should You Pick, and Does It Matter?
Both cost 0.03% and ran 0.99 correlated; VTI holds about 3,512 stocks to VOO's 504. VTI is the more principled pick, VOO is fine, and holding both adds nothing.
Strategy16 min read
Your Portfolio Is Not Just Your Brokerage Account: Human Capital Risk for Tech Workers
RSU-heavy tech workers are already concentrated in U.S. mega-cap growth before buying a single ETF. Here is why the standard index fund portfolio has gaps, and what to do about it.
Concept16 min read
60/40, Target-Date Funds, or 100% Stocks Forever? They're Solving Different Problems.
The 60/40 portfolio, Vanguard's target-date glide path, and Cederburg's all-equity research are not competing answers to the same question. Here is what each approach actually solves, who it is for, and who it is not for.
Concept14 min read
The Four Deep Risks of Investing: What Bernstein Got Right About Real Danger
Volatility is not the real enemy. Inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation are. Here is Bernstein's framework for understanding what can permanently impair your purchasing power, and what you can actually do about each.
Concept14 min read
JL Collins Is Right About Simplicity. He's Wrong That VTSAX Is All You Need.
VTSAX is an excellent U.S. stock fund. But treating it as a complete global equity portfolio confuses simplicity with concentration and mistakes foreign revenue for true international diversification.
Concept14 min read
The Tech Bro Portfolio: Why VOO + QQQ + NVDA Is Not Diversified
A portfolio split across VOO, QQQ, VGT, and a few tech stocks can still put 26% of your money in three companies. Ticker count is not diversification. Here is the evidence.
Concept14 min read
VOO + QQQ + SCHD: The Reddit Portfolio That Isn't Diversified
Equal thirds in VOO, QQQ, and SCHD looks like three different bets. It is actually one: U.S. large-cap stocks with a growth/dividend barbell and zero international exposure. Here is what the data shows.
Methodology14 min read
Passive Investing Is a Label, Not a Literal Description
Index investing is better understood as delegated management. Someone chose the rules, the screens, and the reconstitution schedule. Here is where the discretion actually lives, and why broad indexing is still a good idea.
Concept14 min readCalculator
What Fidelity's ZERO Funds Save, and What You Give Up
Fidelity's ZERO funds charge 0.00% but track Fidelity's own narrower indexes. Over 5 years to Sept 2026, gaps to rivals ran from -0.29 to +0.67 points a year.
Strategy14 min readCalculator
Lump Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging: 98 Years of Evidence
Lump sum investing beats DCA 67% of the time. But the real question is when it doesn't. Explore 98 years of S&P 500 data with an interactive calculator and see which strategy won in every starting year since 1928.
Methodology12 min read
Growth Stocks vs. Systematic Momentum: They're Not the Same Thing
Growth investing buys expensive companies with strong fundamentals. Momentum investing buys whatever is going up. They hold the same stocks for completely different reasons, and the academic evidence favors one over the other.
Concept14 min read
Dividends Are Not Free Money: What Every Investor Should Know
When a company pays a dividend, its stock price drops by the dividend amount. You are not richer. The mechanics, the tax trap, why dividend capture fails, and why dividends still exist anyway.
Concept14 min read
Why U.S. Companies with Global Revenue Don't Give You Global Diversification
Apple earns 60% of revenue outside the U.S., but its stock still moves with the S&P 500. Domicile matters more than revenue. See the correlation data, the CAPE valuation gap, and what the lost decade taught us.
Concept14 min read
The Case for Global Equity Diversification: Why VTI Alone Is Not Enough
Fifteen years of U.S. dominance is one regime among several, and global markets trade at meaningfully lower valuations. The evidence for owning the world.
Concept18 min readCalculator
How to Start Investing: A Beginner's Guide to Personal Finance and Index Funds
Your first 90 days as an investor. Prioritize spending, open the right account, pick two index funds, and let compounding work. Evidence-based, no jargon, with an interactive compound interest calculator.
Methodology14 min read
Small-Cap Value Historical Returns: Decades of Evidence, Years of Pain
From 1927 to 2023, Dimensional's U.S. small-cap value index returned about 13.1% a year to the S&P 500's 10.1%. The research and the long droughts.
Strategy14 min read
Why I Like AVUV, AVDV, and AVGV: Turning Factor Research into a Portfolio
AVUV, AVDV, and AVGV turn decades of academic research on size, value, and profitability into investable portfolios. Here is what each fund does, how they compare to Dimensional alternatives, and who they are not for.
Methodology12 min read
Asset-Liability Matching: Align Your Bonds to Your Goals
Learn how to match your bond portfolio duration to your liability timeline, reducing interest rate risk and ensuring your assets are there when you need them.
Strategy14 min read
Concentration Risk: When to Sell Your Company Stock and How to Diversify
Single-stock concentration increases volatility without increasing expected returns. Learn how to measure concentration with HHI, run the sell-vs-hold math, and use multi-year projections to build a diversification plan.
Strategy16 min readCalculator
Tax-Loss Harvesting: How to Turn Portfolio Losses Into Tax Savings
Loss netting, the 61-day wash-sale window, and the five rungs of substantially identical, with different-index and Avantis/Dimensional replacement pairs.
Concept15 min read
Lifecycle Asset Allocation: Why Young Investors Should Hold More Stocks
In your 20s, future earnings dwarf your portfolio. Why '100 minus your age' is too conservative, and how human capital and glide paths reshape allocation.
Methodology14 min read
Fama-French Factor Analysis: What Your Portfolio Is Really Doing
Go beyond simple returns. Factor models decompose your portfolio performance into systematic risk exposures like market, size, value, and momentum.
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Disclaimer: This page is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Summitward is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and no fiduciary relationship is created by your use of it. Consult a qualified professional before acting. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. Provided as is, without warranty of any kind; see our Terms of Service for limitations of liability.