Learn

Free, in-depth guides on the financial models and strategies behind Summitward. Evidence-based, no-fluff, with interactive calculators in every major guide.

Start here

All calculators
Strategy8 min readCalculator
Money Path: The Interactive Personal Finance Flowchart for 2026
Answer 7 questions and see where you are on the 7-camp climb from budget to summit. A modern, personalized take on the r/personalfinance flowchart with 2026 IRS limits and Summitward tool deep-links.
Concept20 min read
The Complete Guide to Financial Independence (FIRE Movement 2026)
Everything you need to know about FIRE: how to calculate your number, types of FIRE, the five pillars of financial independence, and how to build a plan that actually works.
Concept18 min readCalculator
How to Start Investing: A Beginner's Guide to Personal Finance and Index Funds
Your first 90 days as an investor. Prioritize spending, open the right account, pick two index funds, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. Evidence-based, no jargon, with an interactive compound interest calculator.
Concept14 min read
How to Track Your Net Worth (Step-by-Step Guide)
Net worth is the single most important measure of financial health. Learn what to include, how to calculate it, which tracking method fits your style, and how to turn raw numbers into a plan for financial independence.
Concept12 min readCalculator
How to Determine Your Financial Independence Number
Your FI number is the portfolio size that lets you stop working. Learn how to calculate it from your spending and safe withdrawal rate, and explore Lean, Comfortable, and Fat FI tiers.
Concept15 min readCalculator
The Engineer's Guide to Systematic Investing
Most people expect investing to be about having an opinion. Systematic investing is about having a process. The evidence, the levels ladder, and the friction calculator that quantifies how small mistakes compound.

Browse by topic

Retirement Planning

Safe withdrawal rates, Monte Carlo simulation, Roth conversions, sequence-of-returns risk, and Social Security timing for the years when your portfolio replaces your paycheck.

View all 30 guides

Tax Strategy

Roth vs. Traditional, tax-loss harvesting, the tax-advantaged trifecta, HSA investing, and how to pay less tax across a full lifetime of earning and spending.

View all 20 guides

Equity Compensation

RSU taxation, withholding elections, concentration risk, and how to think about tech-industry equity comp alongside the rest of your financial picture.

View all 6 guides

Home & Big Purchases

Rent-vs-buy math, the real cost of owning a house or a car, down-payment strategy, and mortgage points: the decisions that shape your cash flow for decades.

View all 7 guides
Browse all 108 guides
ConceptGetting Started12 min readCalculator
How to Determine Your Financial Independence Number
Your FI number is the portfolio size that lets you stop working. Learn how to calculate it from your spending and safe withdrawal rate, and explore Lean, Comfortable, and Fat FI tiers.
ConceptRetirement Planning14 min read
Coast FIRE: When Your Portfolio Can Grow Without You
Coast FIRE is the point where compound growth alone will carry your portfolio to financial independence. Learn the math, see worked examples by age, and understand how it compares to Barista FIRE and Lean FIRE.
StrategyGetting Started14 min readCalculator
Debt Avalanche vs. Snowball: Which Payoff Strategy Saves You More
Compare the two most popular debt payoff strategies side by side. Learn the math behind avalanche and snowball methods, see how extra payments accelerate your timeline, and explore when investing beats paying off debt.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases15 min read
Rent vs. Buy: A Financial Analysis Beyond the Monthly Payment
The monthly payment comparison is misleading. Learn how opportunity cost, transaction fees, tax benefits, and investment returns change the rent vs. buy math, and why hold period is the key variable.
StrategyRetirement Planning15 min read
Safe Withdrawal Rate: Why the 4% Rule Isn't Enough
The 4% rule is a starting point, not a strategy. Learn five modern withdrawal approaches, from guardrails to CAPE-based rules, and how Monte Carlo simulation stress-tests each one across thousands of market scenarios.
ConceptRetirement Planning15 min read
Monte Carlo Retirement Simulation: A Complete Guide
Learn how Monte Carlo simulation stress-tests your retirement plan across thousands of market scenarios, and why a single average return is not enough.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio15 min read
Lifecycle Asset Allocation: Why Young Investors Should Hold More Stocks
Your biggest asset in your 20s is future earnings, not your portfolio. Learn why "100 minus your age" is too conservative and how lifecycle theory, human capital, and glide paths shape smarter asset allocation by age.
StrategyTax Strategy14 min readCalculator
Tax-Loss Harvesting: How to Turn Portfolio Losses Into Tax Savings
Learn how tax-loss harvesting works, from wash sale rules and capital loss netting to replacement fund strategies. See a worked example of the tax benefit calculation and understand when TLH is worth the effort.
StrategyTax Strategy13 min read
Roth Conversion Ladder: A Step-by-Step Strategy
How early retirees use Roth conversion ladders to access retirement funds penalty-free while minimizing lifetime taxes.
MethodologyRisk & Protection12 min read
Understanding Your CEFR Score: Financial Health Beyond Net Worth
Your net worth is only half the picture. CEFR measures whether your assets can actually cover your future liabilities, from mortgages to healthcare.
MethodologyInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Fama-French Factor Analysis: What Your Portfolio Is Really Doing
Go beyond simple returns. Factor models decompose your portfolio performance into systematic risk exposures like market, size, value, and momentum.
StrategyEquity Compensation12 min readCalculator
RSU Tax Strategy: What Engineers Get Wrong About Equity Compensation
RSU vests are taxable income that can push you into a higher bracket. Learn the sell-vs-hold framework, how to use tax-loss harvesting when diversifying, and the common mistakes engineers make with equity comp.
ConceptRetirement Planning15 min readCalculator
Coast FIRE Calculator: Find Your Coast Number at Every Age
Calculate your Coast FIRE number with step-by-step formulas, comprehensive tables by age, and three worked examples. Find out if you have already reached Coast FIRE and what to do next.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Concentration Risk: When to Sell Your Company Stock and How to Diversify
Single-stock concentration increases volatility without increasing expected returns. Learn how to measure concentration with HHI, run the sell-vs-hold math, and use multi-year projections to build a diversification plan.
ConceptGetting Started14 min read
How to Track Your Net Worth (Step-by-Step Guide)
Net worth is the single most important measure of financial health. Learn what to include, how to calculate it, which tracking method fits your style, and how to turn raw numbers into a plan for financial independence.
ConceptGetting Started16 min readCalculator
FIRE Calculator: How Much Do You Need to Retire Early?
Calculate your personal FIRE number from your spending and safe withdrawal rate. Reference tables for FIRE numbers by spending level, a savings rate timeline chart, and three fully worked examples at different income levels.
ConceptGetting Started14 min read
Net Worth by Age: 2026 Benchmarks and Percentiles
How does your net worth compare? See average and median net worth by age group from Federal Reserve data, understand percentile rankings, and learn the metrics that matter more than the number itself.
ConceptGetting Started20 min read
The Complete Guide to Financial Independence (FIRE Movement 2026)
Everything you need to know about FIRE: how to calculate your number, types of FIRE, the five pillars of financial independence, and how to build a plan that actually works.
StrategyRisk & Protection18 min read
College Savings Plan: What 20 Years of Tuition Data Reveals About 529 Strategy
College costs have doubled in 20 years, growing 1.6x faster than inflation. See the data from 12 elite schools, learn how 529 plans work, and use three family case studies to find your savings number.
MethodologyRetirement Planning12 min read
Asset-Liability Matching: Align Your Bonds to Your Goals
Learn how to match your bond portfolio duration to your liability timeline, reducing interest rate risk and ensuring your assets are there when you need them.
StrategyRetirement Planning14 min read
Sequence of Returns Risk: Why Your Retirement Year Matters More Than Your Average Return
Two retirees with nearly identical 30-year returns can have opposite outcomes. Learn how the order of early returns determines whether your portfolio survives, and how backtesting and Monte Carlo simulation reveal risks that averages hide.
StrategyRisk & Protection16 min read
529 vs. Taxable Brokerage: Which Account Wins for College Savings?
A 529 plan is not always the best choice. See the after-tax math for three families at different tax brackets and time horizons, learn the nine drivers that determine the winner, and find out when a taxable brokerage actually comes out ahead.
StrategyRetirement Planning15 min readCalculator
When to Claim Social Security: The Math Behind the Decision
Claiming at 62 vs. 67 vs. 70 changes your lifetime benefits by hundreds of thousands of dollars. See the break-even math, three case studies, and how taxes complicate the simple answer.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Lump Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging: 98 Years of Evidence
Lump sum investing beats DCA 67% of the time. But the real question is when it doesn't. Explore 98 years of S&P 500 data with an interactive calculator and see which strategy won in every starting year since 1928.
StrategyTax Strategy16 min readCalculator
Roth vs. Traditional 401(k) and IRA: The Tax Math That Actually Matters
The answer depends on one number: your break-even retirement tax rate. Use the interactive calculator to find yours, see 2026 brackets, and learn why tax diversification matters more than picking the 'right' account.
MethodologyInvesting & Portfolio12 min read
Growth Stocks vs. Systematic Momentum: They're Not the Same Thing
Growth investing buys expensive companies with strong fundamentals. Momentum investing buys whatever is going up. They hold the same stocks for completely different reasons, and the academic evidence favors one over the other.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Dividends Are Not Free Money: What Every Investor Should Know
When a company pays a dividend, its stock price drops by the dividend amount. You are not richer. This guide walks through the mechanics, the tax trap, why dividend capture fails, and why dividends still exist if they are not free money.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Why U.S. Companies with Global Revenue Don't Give You Global Diversification
Apple earns 60% of revenue outside the U.S., but its stock still moves with the S&P 500. Domicile matters more than revenue. See the correlation data, the CAPE valuation gap, and what the lost decade taught us.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
The Case for Global Equity Diversification: Why VTI Alone Is Not Enough
U.S. market dominance over the past 15 years is the exception, not the rule. Global markets trade at significantly lower valuations. Here is the evidence for owning the world, not just America.
ConceptGetting Started18 min readCalculator
How to Start Investing: A Beginner's Guide to Personal Finance and Index Funds
Your first 90 days as an investor. Prioritize spending, open the right account, pick two index funds, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. Evidence-based, no jargon, with an interactive compound interest calculator.
MethodologyInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
The Case for Small-Cap Value: Decades of Evidence, Years of Pain
Small-cap value has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% annually since 1927. The catch: you have to survive decade-long droughts. Here is the academic evidence, the risk, and why the premium probably persists.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Why I Like AVUV, AVDV, and AVGV: Turning Factor Research into a Portfolio
AVUV, AVDV, and AVGV turn decades of academic research on size, value, and profitability into investable portfolios. Here is what each fund does, how they compare to Dimensional alternatives, and who they are not for.
StrategyTax Strategy18 min read
Tax-Aware Decumulation: A Guide for Self-Directed High Earners
For high earners, early retirement is not a 4% rule problem. It is a multi-decade tax-management challenge across income brackets, NIIT, IRMAA, ACA subsidies, and Roth conversions. Here is the framework.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
The Tech Bro Portfolio: Why VOO + QQQ + NVDA Is Not Diversified
A portfolio split across VOO, QQQ, VGT, and a few tech stocks can still put 26% of your money in three companies. Ticker count is not diversification. Here is the evidence.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
VOO + QQQ + SCHD: The Reddit Portfolio That Isn't Diversified
Equal thirds in VOO, QQQ, and SCHD looks like three different bets. It is actually one: U.S. large-cap stocks with a growth/dividend barbell and zero international exposure. Here is what the data shows.
StrategyTax Strategy14 min readCalculator
The HSA Investing Strategy: Triple Tax Advantage for High Earners
Only 15% of HSA holders invest their funds. The rest are leaving the most tax-advantaged account in America sitting in cash. Here is the receipt hoarding strategy, the math, and who it is (and is not) for.
StrategyRisk & Protection18 min readCalculator
Where to Park Your Cash: A High Earner's Guide to SGOV, T-Bills, HYSAs, and Munis
Your HYSA is costing you money in state taxes. SGOV, T-bills, and muni money markets often beat savings accounts after tax. Use the Cash Reserve Optimizer to size your emergency fund and find the best vehicle for each layer.
StrategyTax Strategy16 min readCalculator
The Tax-Advantaged Trifecta: Mega Backdoor Roth, Backdoor Roth IRA, and HSA
Single-earner married households can save $95,750 in tax-advantaged accounts in 2026; with two 401(k)s + Mega Backdoor access, the ceiling rises to $167,750. The math, the order of operations, and a calculator that handles single, dual-earner, and asymmetric cases.
MethodologyInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
Passive Investing Is a Label, Not a Literal Description
Index investing is better understood as delegated management. Someone chose the rules, the screens, and the reconstitution schedule. Here is where the discretion actually lives, and why broad indexing is still a good idea.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Zero Fee, Non-Zero Benchmark Risk: Why Fidelity's ZERO Funds Optimize the Wrong Variable
Fidelity's ZERO funds are fine investments. But '0.00% expense ratio' draws attention to the least important basis points while hiding proprietary benchmark risk and narrower market coverage.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min read
JL Collins Is Right About Simplicity. He's Wrong That VTSAX Is All You Need.
VTSAX is an excellent U.S. stock fund. But treating it as a complete global equity portfolio confuses simplicity with concentration and mistakes foreign revenue for true international diversification.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases16 min readCalculator
How Much to Put Down on a House: The Framework Most Buyers Get Wrong
Stop optimizing for total interest paid. The right down payment depends on cash to close, post-close reserves, PMI thresholds, and loan-bucket boundaries. Includes a calculator for tech workers with RSUs.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases14 min readCalculator
Mortgage Points: When They're Worth It and When They're Not
Points are a prepayment of interest, not a rate hack. Learn the CFPB break-even framework, who should and shouldn't buy points, and why shopping lenders beats chasing a headline rate. Includes an interactive decision calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio12 min readCalculator
VTI vs. VOO: The Most Overrated Decision in Investing
VTI and VOO are 99% correlated with 87% overlap. VTI is the more principled choice. VOO is perfectly fine. The bigger mistake is obsessing over this decision instead of the ones that actually matter.
StrategyEquity Compensation16 min read
Your Portfolio Is Not Just Your Brokerage Account: Human Capital Risk for Tech Workers
RSU-heavy tech workers are already concentrated in U.S. mega-cap growth before buying a single ETF. Here is why the standard index fund portfolio has gaps, and what to do about it.
ConceptRisk & Protection16 min readCalculator
Don't Mix Insurance With Investing: Why Term Life Usually Wins
Insurance is for transferring catastrophic risk. Investing is for compounding capital. When a product tries to do both, you usually get more complexity, more fees, and more sales incentives. Here is the evidence.
StrategyRisk & Protection16 min readCalculator
Term Life Insurance: How Much You Need, How to Buy It, and What to Avoid
Life insurance is a temporary hedge against catastrophic income loss. Use the needs-based calculator to find your coverage gap, learn why employer coverage is not enough, and why term almost always beats whole life.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio16 min read
60/40, Target-Date Funds, or 100% Stocks Forever? They're Solving Different Problems.
The 60/40 portfolio, Vanguard's target-date glide path, and Cederburg's all-equity research are not competing answers to the same question. Here is what each approach actually solves, who it is for, and who it is not for.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases16 min readCalculator
The True Cost of Owning a Home: Cash, Economic, and Exit Value
Your mortgage payment is not your cost of ownership. Learn the three views (cash, economic, exit) used by HUD and CFPB, see the real categories most buyers underestimate, and use the interactive calculator to compute your own numbers.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases14 min readCalculator
The True Cost of Owning a Car: Depreciation, Not the Monthly Payment
Depreciation is usually the largest cost of car ownership, and most buyers never see it. Learn the AAA/Edmunds TCO framework, see how gas, hybrid, and EV costs compare, and use the interactive calculator to find your real cost per mile.
ConceptRisk & Protection14 min read
The Four Deep Risks of Investing: What Bernstein Got Right About Real Danger
Volatility is not the real enemy. Inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation are. Here is Bernstein's framework for understanding what can permanently impair your purchasing power, and what you can actually do about each.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio17 min read
Stocks Are Always Risky: The Equity Premium Exists for a Reason
Long horizons do not repeal risk. Russia 1917, China 1949, and Japan's 51-year climb to guaranteed non-negative real returns show that time alone does not make stocks safe. Bernstein's four deep risks, DMS global evidence, and why global diversification still matters.
StrategyRisk & Protection18 min readCalculator
The Best Inflation Hedges Are Boring: Not Stocks, Gold, or Bitcoin
Keeping up with inflation long-term is not hedging inflation when you need it. The real answer is explicit CPI-linked assets (I Bonds and TIPS) plus fixed-rate debt as the underrated liability-side hedge. Includes an after-tax real yield calculator.
StrategyRisk & Protection14 min readCalculator
Emergency Fund Sizing: 3, 6, 12, or 24 Months? A Job-Risk Matrix Based on Real Labor Data
The 3-6 month rule is lazy. BLS data shows unemployment duration varies by industry. A job-risk matrix and sizing calculator for your household's real income-shock risk.
StrategyTax Strategy14 min readCalculator
RSU Withholding Calculator: What Federal Rate Should You Choose at Each Vest?
Your RSUs are not taxed at 22%. They are often withheld at 22%. Use this per-vest calculator to project your real federal tax, pick the right election, and check IRS safe harbor before April.
Strategy15 min read
The Order of Investing Operations: Where Your Next Dollar Should Go
A default savings waterfall from emergency fund to taxable brokerage, plus explicit branches for high earners with mega-backdoor access, self-employed savers, and house buyers in the next 3 years.
StrategyGetting Started8 min readCalculator
Money Path: The Interactive Personal Finance Flowchart for 2026
Answer 7 questions and see where you are on the 7-camp climb from budget to summit. A modern, personalized take on the r/personalfinance flowchart with 2026 IRS limits and Summitward tool deep-links.
Strategy16 min read
The Mega Backdoor Roth Is a Much Bigger Deal Than the Backdoor Roth IRA
Mega Backdoor Roth uses the much larger 401(k) annual additions limit, not the IRA limit. A plain-English walkthrough plus a calculator for your actual room.
Strategy15 min read
Why My Paycheck Is Intentionally Too Small: The RSU Bridge Strategy for Max-Saver Tech Workers
I intentionally starve my paycheck to max 401k + MBDR + HSA, then bridge spending with a short-term reserve and quarterly RSU vest proceeds. Here's the system and a calculator to size the bridge.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Most Stocks Lose to T-Bills. The Market Still Wins.
58% of U.S. stocks since 1926 lost to Treasury bills lifetime. Just 4% account for all stock-market wealth. Here's why broad diversification wins mathematically.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio13 min readCalculator
Stocks Usually Win. "Usually" Is Not a Financial Plan.
Stocks lost to bonds for 20, 41, and even 68 years in a row. Your retirement plan needs to survive that scenario. Here's what 220 years of data show.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio16 min readCalculator
Do You Need Managed Futures? An Evidence-Based Look at Trend Following, Return Stacking, and the Cockroach Portfolio
Trend-following managed futures can diversify across regimes, but they're not magic. Here's the evidence, the tradeoffs, and who should and shouldn't use them.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio17 min readCalculator
Covered Calls Are Not Free Income: What XYLD, QYLD, JEPI, and JEPQ Actually Cost You
Covered-call ETFs distribute 8-12% per year while the underlying strategy earns far less. Here's the academic evidence, the tax drag, and who they actually fit.
StrategyRisk & Protection16 min readCalculator
Is a 30-Year Fixed Mortgage an Inflation Hedge? Yes, With Important Caveats
A 30-year fixed mortgage can hedge inflation, but only conditionally. Here's the math, Bernstein's four deep risks, and when the framing breaks down.
StrategyGetting Started17 min readCalculator
Should Med, Law, and MBA Students Save Money? The Case for Lifecycle Consumption Smoothing
Med, law, and MBA students often save little or borrow during school. Here's the academic case (Choi, Carroll), the risks, and the middle ground.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio16 min readCalculator
Do You Need Return Stacking? A Hurdle-Rate Framework for Portable Alpha
Return-stacked ETFs (NTSX, RSSB, RSST, SPLS) promise diversification without sacrificing equity. Here's the hurdle-rate framework for evaluating any of them.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio18 min readCalculator
Should You Buy IPO Stocks? Why the "Ground Floor" Is Often the Exit
Mega-IPOs from SpaceX to OpenAI are coming. Here's the academic evidence on IPO returns, the first-day-pop trap, and what indexers actually own.
StrategyHome & Big Purchases16 min readCalculator
Are You About to Be House-Poor? A Stress Test for RSU-Heavy Households
Most home affordability calculators ask if you can make the payment. This one asks if you'll still be solvent if your RSUs drop 40% and a repair hits.
Strategy16 min read
Roth 401(k) as Vault, Roth IRA as Valve: Asset Protection vs. Withdrawal Flexibility
ERISA-protected Roth 401(k) is the accumulation vault. Roth IRA ordering rules are the withdrawal valve. The sequencing strategy + 5-year clock and pro-rata gotchas, with a withdrawal-path comparator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio17 min readCalculator
Do Stock Valuations Still Matter? What CAPE Tells You About the Next Decade
CAPE near 40 doesn't mean sell. It means lower your forward return assumptions. The academic evidence on valuation ratios as long-horizon return forecasts, the valid criticisms of CAPE, and an interactive calculator for your own assumptions.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio18 min readCalculator
Do 200 Years of Stock Returns Still Matter? Yes, but Not as a Forecast
Long-run stock history is relevant because it shows returns are regime-dependent, not because it produces a clean 6-7% real constant. McQuarrie's data corrections, the international evidence, the railroad case, and a calculator that compares terminal wealth across five historical regimes.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio10 min read
What Real Return Should You Assume for Stocks? About 5%, Not 7%
The popular 7% real figure is U.S.-only and often quoted as an arithmetic mean. The globally diversified geometric historical mean is closer to 5% real. Here is where each number comes from, why the gap matters for your planning, and what to do about it.
ConceptRisk & Protection12 min readCalculator
FU Money: The Balance Sheet Number That Buys Back Your Choices
JL Collins's FU Money is enough accessible wealth to refuse a bad deal without your life falling apart. Five autonomy levels, the Fed and Vanguard data, and a runway stress-test calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio13 min readCalculator
The Problem With Buy the Dip: Why Wasn't the Money Already Invested?
AQR tested 196 buy-the-dip rules; most lost. Vanguard, Dimensional, PWL, and Morningstar agree. The empirical case for investing today, with a cost-of-waiting calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio12 min readCalculator
Just Keep Buying: A Strong Habit, Not a Complete Plan
Nick Maggiulli's accumulation rule, what it gets right, the savings-vs-returns crossover most peer posts miss, and which dollars it doesn't apply to. With calculator.
ConceptGetting Started12 min readCalculator
The Wealth Ladder: Six Levels, the 0.01% Rule, and Why It's a Map Not a GPS
Nick Maggiulli's six wealth levels, the 0.01% rule, UBS distribution data, and the liquidity / age / geography corrections peer book reviews skip. With total-vs-liquid calculator.
StrategyEquity Compensation7 min read
Sell Your RSUs at Vest: The Cash-Bonus Test for Tech Workers
When RSUs vest, the rational default is sell-all and diversify. Sell-to-cover and deposit-cash are concentration bets, not tax strategies. The cash-bonus test, side-by-side comparison, and 10b5-1 exception.
StrategyTax Strategy13 min readCalculator
Tax-Aware Long-Short: Real Tax Alpha or Complex Marketing?
TALS for HNW taxable investors: AQR's loss-capacity research, the gain-deferral surprise, Section 1259 caveat, SMA pass-through, and a hurdle calculator that refuses to estimate alpha.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio12 min readCalculator
You Have One Household Portfolio, Not One Per Account
Account labels are wrappers; risk and return live at the household level. Reichenstein after-tax, Viceira human capital, the asset-location 80/20, and a Household X-Ray calculator with location flags.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio13 min readCalculator
Modern Portfolio Theory for Real Life: Stop Judging Funds in Isolation
Markowitz's portfolio choice for individual investors. Two-asset variance with correlation, the 'correlations go to one' supplement, the marginal-fund test, and a portfolio impact calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Personal Leverage: Margin, Leveraged ETFs, Lifecycle Theory, and Forced Selling
How leverage relates to MPT and Sharpe, what Ayres-Nalebuff actually argued, FINRA Reg T and 25% maintenance, the margin-call drawdown formula, daily-reset path dependency, tax wrinkles, and a Margin Stress Test calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio12 min readCalculator
RMW Explained: The Profitability Factor, Out-of-Sample Evidence, and Avantis vs Dimensional
The Fama-French RMW factor, Novy-Marx's gross profitability, out-of-sample evidence (Wahal, Linnainmaa-Roberts, Harvey-Liu-Zhu, McLean-Pontiff), the Avantis-vs-Dimensional cash-vs-operating disagreement, and a tilt + tracking-error calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio10 min readCalculator
Shareholder Yield: Why Dividend Yield Alone Is Incomplete
Dividend yield misses most of how US companies actually return cash. Boudoukh-Michaely-Richardson-Roberts (2007) showed net payout yield (dividends + buybacks - issuance) has stronger predictive power. With a Net Payout Yield Decomposer.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio13 min readCalculator
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy: Why GDP Growth Doesn't Predict Stock Returns
The US is 26% of global GDP and 63% of MSCI ACWI. Ritter (2005) found cross-country GDP-equity correlation is negative. Five links separate GDP from per-share return, and a GDP-to-Stock-Return Bridge calculator walks every one.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Does the Fed Really Set Interest Rates? Yield Curves, Term Premium, and r-Star Explained
The Fed sets one rate (FFR target). Everything else is markets. The yield curve = expected short rates + term premium, r-star is unobservable, mortgage rates aren't Fed funds + spread. With a Bond Duration Shock + Reinvestment Risk calculator.
MethodologyInvesting & Portfolio16 min readCalculator
The R² Trap: Why Rolling P/E vs. 10-Year Return Charts Are Less Certain Than They Look
Why the viral R² = 0.73 forward P/E vs. 10-year return chart looks more certain than it is. Rolling-window overlap, persistent regressors, and a Monte Carlo demo of spurious R²-with the BRW (2008), Stambaugh, and Goyal-Welch evidence behind it.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Futures Yield Explained: What RSSY Actually Owns
RSSY is not a high-yield ETF. It stacks U.S. equity exposure with a systematic futures carry strategy. Here is what futures yield actually is, what the prospectus discloses, and how the live track record compares to the S&P 500.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio17 min readCalculator
Farmland and Timberland Investing: Real Diversifiers or Expensive Illiquidity?
Farmland and timber are real asset classes, but the wrapper is the catch. See what platform fees, lockups, and taxes do to your net return vs. public REITs.
StrategyGetting Started15 min readCalculator
The 2% Yield Hiding in Your Budget: Where Credit Card Rewards Belong in a Financial Plan
$47.5B in credit card rewards earned in 2024, but $160B in interest was paid. Where rewards fit in a plan, who should optimize, and who should not.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio13 min readCalculator
How Often Should You Rebalance Your Portfolio? An Evidence-Based Answer
Vanguard's 1926-2009 data shows monthly, quarterly, and annual rebalancing produce near-identical risk-adjusted returns. The real questions are bands, cash flow, and taxes. With an interactive checker.
StrategyEquity Compensation14 min readCalculator
Cash vs Equity Election: When Your Employer Lets You Convert Future Awards
Some employers now let you swap future equity for fixed cash on the same vesting schedule. It is a forward sale of single-employer exposure, not cash-now-vs-stock-later. With an interactive decision tool.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio15 min readCalculator
The Engineer's Guide to Systematic Investing
Most people expect investing to be about having an opinion. Systematic investing is about having a process. The evidence, the levels ladder, and the friction calculator that quantifies how small mistakes compound.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
The Stock Market Rewards Optimists, But Not the Naïve Ones
Elroy Dimson's Rational Reminder interview, distilled. Easy data bias, U.S. exceptionalism, the GDP-vs-returns gap, and a stress tester that shows how much your plan depends on the equity risk premium.
StrategyRetirement Planning16 min readCalculator
How to Build a TIPS Ladder: Turning Retirement Savings Into Inflation-Adjusted Income
TIPS ladders convert savings into guaranteed real cash flows. With 30-year real yields at 2.66% in May 2026, a ladder funds a 4.8% real payout. Who it is for, who it is not, the tax gotcha, and a calculator.
ConceptGetting Started15 min readCalculator
Money and Happiness: What the Research Actually Says About Funding a Good Life
The 2010 $75k plateau was an oversimplification. PERMA-V, time affluence, and how to use your portfolio to fund a good life, not just to maximize net worth. Includes a Time Affluence Calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio15 min readCalculator
The Risk-Free Rate Is Your Hurdle Rate: How to Use Treasuries and TIPS as the Starting Point for Every Investment
At 5.03% nominal and 2.74% real on May 12 2026, Treasury and TIPS yields set the hurdle every risky asset has to clear. The framework, the common mistakes, and a Hurdle Rate Check calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio16 min readCalculator
Fama-French HML Explained: What the Value Factor Means for DIY Investors
HML is the academic version of value investing: a transparent, rules-based long-short factor that asks whether cheap stocks outperform expensive ones. What the evidence says, how it differs from AQR and Avantis, and a Value Tilt Pain Test calculator.
ConceptInvesting & Portfolio16 min readCalculator
Mega-IPOs and Your Index Funds: How Free Float Decides What SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Mean for VTI, VOO, and QQQ
A trillion-dollar IPO with a 5% public float is not the same as a trillion-dollar IPO with 90%. Free-float adjustment, seasoning rules, and the methodology differences between CRSP, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 decide how much exposure your index fund actually takes. Includes a Mega-IPO Index Impact Calculator.
StrategyTax Strategy16 min readCalculator
Do You Actually Need Direct Indexing?
Direct indexing is heavily marketed to high earners, but ETF tax-loss harvesting already captures most of the value for many. A skeptical primer comparing ETF TLH, long-only DI, and long/short TALS, with an interactive decay visualizer.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
AVGV Review: A One-Ticker Global Value Tilt for DIY Investors
AVGV bundles a global value, profitability, and smaller-cap tilt into one ETF that rebalances itself. A deep-dive review and a calculator comparing AVGV to a DIY basket of Avantis ETFs.
StrategyRetirement Planning16 min readCalculator
The Treasury Bond Fantasy: Can You Actually Live Off U.S. Government Interest Forever?
A viral tweet imagines putting your entire net worth into Treasury bonds and living off the coupons. The math is seductive and the implementation is mostly wrong. After-tax-real income, TIPS, I-bonds, and an interactive calculator that shows what the coupon actually buys.
StrategyRetirement Planning13 min readCalculator
Bengen on Inflation: The Math Behind Retirement's Greatest Risk
Bill Bengen calls inflation the greatest enemy of retirees. The math is sharper: unexpected inflation alongside an early bear market breaks the 4% rule. Replay every historical 30-year retirement window.
StrategyRetirement Planning14 min read
Bengen vs. Bengen: Should Retirees Outsource Equity Risk to a Third-Party Signal?
Bengen's 1994 paper warned against pulling back from stocks after a bad early market. His 2026 recommendation moves toward doing exactly that, via third-party perceived-risk services. What the evidence supports, and what it doesn't.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio14 min readCalculator
Should Long-Term Index Investors Use Stop-Loss Orders? Usually No, and Here's the Math
Stop-loss orders feel like portfolio insurance. The evidence says they usually aren't. What stops do, what they don't, and when they actually help.
StrategyTax Strategy15 min readCalculator
Mega Backdoor Roth Before 59½: What Comes Out, What's Taxed, What's Penalized
MBDR dollars before 59½ live in three places: after-tax 401(k), Roth 401(k), Roth IRA. Each has its own ordering rules, 5-year clocks, and penalty math. Walk through your own numbers with the simulator.
StrategyInvesting & Portfolio15 min readCalculator
When to Sell a Winning Stock: The Question Without a Good Answer
Buying is the easy half. Selling a lucky winner means navigating taxes, anchoring, regret, and concentration. What the evidence supports.
StrategyTax Strategy15 min readCalculator
Donate Appreciated Stock or Use a DAF? The Tax Math and Where the Strategy Is Oversold
Donating appreciated stock is tax-efficient. A DAF can be a useful wrapper. Neither makes charity free. The mechanics, the 2026 OBBB changes (0.5% AGI floor, 35% deduction cap, $1k/$2k non-itemizer cash), and an after-tax cost calculator.
StrategyGetting Started18 min readCalculator
AUM vs. Hourly vs. Flat-Fee: How DIY Investors Should Pay for Financial Advice
AUM is not inherently bad, and hourly is not inherently good. Learn the three dimensions investors confuse (fiduciary, compensation source, billing method), what the academic evidence actually shows, and where commission-driven sales models like Edward Jones fit. Includes an interactive Advisor Fee Compass.

Get new guides by email

Evidence-based, no jargon. At most two emails a month. Unsubscribe any time.

Or follow on social for updates.