JL Collins Is Right About Simplicity. He's Wrong That VTSAX Is All You Need.

What Collins Gets Right

JL Collins's The Simple Path to Wealth is the most influential personal finance book in the FIRE community. His core message is powerful: buy VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund), keep costs low, stay the course, and do not let Wall Street complexity scare you into bad decisions. That advice has helped millions of people stop overthinking and start investing.

Collins solved the right problem. Before his book, many retail investors were choosing expensive actively managed funds, chasing performance, or sitting in cash. "Buy one low-cost index fund and hold it" was a massive improvement over what most people were doing. VTSAX at 0.04% tracking essentially the full investable U.S. stock market is a genuinely excellent fund.

That part of the message is correct and worth preserving. The disagreement is not "VTSAX is bad." The disagreement is "VTSAX alone is enough."

Where Collins Is Wrong

1. Multinational Revenue Is Not Global Diversification

Collins originally argued that VTSAX already provides international diversification because most large U.S. companies are multinational and generate a large share of revenue overseas. He repeated this logic across multiple posts and comments over the years.

The problem: foreign revenues are not the same thing as foreign equity exposure. Owning Coca-Cola's sales in Brazil is not the same as owning Brazilian equities. Owning Apple's sales in Europe is not the same as owning Europe.

Vanguard's research is explicit: domestic multinationals do not provide the same diversification benefits as international equities. Firms often hedge foreign-currency exposure, a domestic-only portfolio has no ownership stake in leading companies domiciled abroad, and sector exposure is less diversified than the global market portfolio.

Academic research (Rowland and Tesar, University of Michigan) confirms that multinational stocks tend to covary most with their home market, not the foreign markets where they sell products. Adding international indices still shifts the efficient frontier even after accounting for multinationals.

For the full evidence, see the Why Global Revenue Is Not Diversification guide.

2. The Global Market Portfolio Is the Neutral Passive Default

A global market-cap-weighted portfolio is the closest thing to a neutral passive benchmark for equities. As of March 2026, Vanguard's Total World Stock ETF (VT) was approximately 61% U.S. and 39% non-U.S. That means a 100% VTSAX portfolio is not "the market." It is a large active overweight to one country.

It may work out. It may even outperform for long stretches. But it is still a regional concentration bet. Framing U.S.-only as the neutral default is the conceptual error. The global market portfolio is the neutral default. Any deviation from it is an active choice.

3. The Pro-U.S. Case Is Rear-View-Mirror Driven

Over the 10 years ending December 2024, a hypothetical $100 invested in U.S. stocks grew to $334 versus $160 for non-U.S. stocks (Vanguard data). That huge gap understandably makes U.S.-only look brilliant. But as Vanguard points out, this logic is just performance chasing in disguise.

AQR's research decomposes the U.S. outperformance since 1990: U.S. equities beat EAFE by 4.6 percentage points per year, but once relative valuation expansion is controlled for, that advantage shrinks to 1.2 percentage points and is statistically insignificant. Most of the U.S. "superiority" was the U.S. market becoming more expensive relative to peers, not a permanent structural advantage.

Vanguard now projects U.S. equities at 3.9-5.9% annualized over the next decade while describing ex-U.S. developed markets as more attractively valued. Past performance that was driven by valuation expansion is the weakest possible basis for a forward-looking investment decision.

4. Collins Now Holds VT in His Own IRAs

In February 2026, Collins disclosed that he had moved his IRAs into Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), which he described as about 62.5% U.S. and 37.5% international, leaving roughly 15% of his total portfolio outside the U.S. His stated reasons were the administration's economic policies and tariffs, a roughly 10% fall in the dollar, and a 2025 in which U.S. stocks returned 16.4% against more than 30% for most of Europe. His advice to readers stayed where it was: "If you want to remain 100% in US stocks you'll get no pushback from me." The author of the most famous U.S.-only investment book now holds international stocks with his own money, even though his recommendation still allows none.

A Better Default

The fix preserves everything Collins gets right (simplicity, low cost, indexing, behavioral discipline) while eliminating the unnecessary country concentration:

The fee argument for VTSAX-only is weaker than it used to be. VTSAX charges 0.04%. VTWAX charges 0.09%. VTIAX charges 0.11%. The cost gap is real but tiny: on a $500,000 portfolio, the difference between VTSAX and a 60/40 VTI/VXUS split is roughly $200/year. That is not large enough to justify abandoning direct foreign equity ownership.

For the full case for global diversification, see the Case for Global Diversification guide.

The Tax Case for VTI + VXUS Over VT in Taxable Accounts

There is one more reason to prefer VTI + VXUS over VT, and it is purely mechanical: the foreign tax credit.

When foreign governments withhold taxes on dividends from non-U.S. companies (typically 10-15%), the fund that holds those stocks can elect to pass these withholding taxes through to shareholders as a foreign tax credit under IRC Section 853. Shareholders then claim this credit on their U.S. tax return, offsetting federal taxes dollar-for-dollar.

The catch: a fund must hold more than 50% of its assets in foreign stocks at fiscal year-end to qualify for this election. VXUS holds 100% foreign stocks, so it qualifies. VT holds approximately 39% foreign stocks, so it does not. Vanguard does not list VT on its annual "Foreign Tax Credit Information for Eligible Vanguard Funds" document.

The dollar impact is modest but real. On the international portion of a portfolio, the foreign tax credit is worth approximately 0.2% of the foreign allocation annually. For a $500,000 portfolio with 40% international ($200,000 in VXUS), that is roughly $400-$600/year in recoverable taxes. This exceeds the expense ratio difference between VT (0.07%) and VTI + VXUS (~0.05% blended).

Practical implication: VT is simpler (one fund). VTI + VXUS is more tax-efficient in taxable accounts (foreign tax credit). In tax-advantaged accounts (401(k), IRA), the FTC provides no benefit, so VT's simplicity wins. In taxable accounts, VTI + VXUS is the better default for investors who want to capture every recoverable dollar.

The Real Lesson from Collins

Collins’s enduring contribution is “stop making investing complicated.” That insight is correct and timeless. The FIRE community’s obsession with VTSAX specifically is a product of when the advice was written (during a decade of extraordinary U.S. outperformance), not a universal law.

Our update to Collins's advice, and what his own IRAs now hold, is: buy VT. One fund. The whole world. 0.07%. Stay the course.

That is still simple. It is still low-cost. It is still passive. And it is globally diversified.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VTSAX a bad fund?

No. VTSAX is an excellent U.S. stock fund: 0.04% expense ratio, ~3,500 holdings, essentially the full investable U.S. market. The argument is that VTSAX alone is not a complete global equity allocation.

Did JL Collins change his advice?

His holdings changed and his advice did not. In February 2026, Collins moved his IRAs into VT (Vanguard Total World Stock), a fund that is ~62% U.S. and ~38% international, leaving about 15% of his total portfolio international. In the same post he wrote, "If you want to remain 100% in US stocks you'll get no pushback from me."

Why does multinational revenue not count as international diversification?

Because stock prices are driven primarily by where a company is listed, not where it earns revenue. U.S. multinationals still covary with the U.S. market during downturns. Owning Apple's sales in Japan is not the same as owning Toyota's stock. The domicile, currency exposure, valuation regime, and sector mix are all different.

Is VT more expensive than VTSAX?

Slightly. VTSAX charges 0.04%, VTWAX charges 0.09%. On a $500,000 portfolio, that is $250/year more. However, in taxable accounts, VTI + VXUS captures the foreign tax credit (worth ~$400-$600/yr on a $500K portfolio) that VT cannot pass through due to the IRC Section 853 threshold. In tax-advantaged accounts, VT's simplicity wins since the FTC provides no benefit there.

What if the U.S. keeps outperforming?

It might. A globally diversified portfolio still holds 60%+ U.S. stocks at market weight. You participate in U.S. gains. But if international outperforms (as it did 2000-2009 and in 2025), you participate in that too. Diversification is about not betting everything on one country, not about predicting which one wins.

Collins's Position Over Time

For context, here is the timeline of Collins's stated position on international diversification:

• 2012: In Stocks Part XI, Collins argued that VTSAX already provides international exposure through U.S. multinationals and that international funds add unnecessary cost and complexity.
• 2023: In "32 Things to Know", Collins wrote: "As an investor in The United States, I don't feel the need to own international stocks. If you do, buy a world fund/ETF like VTWAX or VT." He also noted: "The United States is the only country with a stock market large enough that you can own just that country's market. If you live anywhere else, buy a world fund."
• February 2026: In "JL Goes International", Collins disclosed that he had moved his IRAs into Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), approximately 62.5% U.S. and 37.5% international, citing tariffs, the dollar and 2025 returns. He kept his advice to readers: 100% U.S. stocks gets "no pushback from me."

Collins went from "I don't feel the need" (2023) to holding a global fund in his IRAs (2026). The reasons he gave were tariffs, the dollar and one year of relative returns, none of which is the domicile and valuation evidence above, and the advice to U.S. readers is unchanged. His case for low-cost indexing and behavioral simplicity also stands.

Discussion: @egr_investor

Key Takeaways

• Collins solved the right problem. Low-cost indexing and behavioral simplicity are genuinely important. That advice helped millions and remains correct.
• He solved it with an unnecessarily concentrated answer. VTSAX is a U.S.-only fund. Treating it as "all you need" confuses simplicity with concentration.
• Multinational revenue is not international diversification. Stocks covary with their home market, not their revenue geography.
• U.S.-only is an active bet, not the neutral default. The global market portfolio is ~61% U.S. A 100% VTSAX portfolio is a large overweight to one country.
• Recent U.S. outperformance was largely valuation expansion (AQR), not a structural law. Forward projections favor international valuations (Vanguard).
• Collins now holds VT in his IRAs. His stated reasons were tariffs, the dollar and 2025 returns, and his advice to U.S. readers still allows 100% domestic.
• The updated advice is VT, not VTSAX. One fund, the whole world, 0.07%, stay the course. Still simple. Still low-cost. Globally diversified.

Related Guides

• Fact-Checking JL Collins on The Diary of a CEO grades the January 2026 interview recorded before his move into VT, claim by claim.
• The S&P 500 Is Passive for You, But Not Under the Hood covers how VTSAX, VTI, and an S&P 500 fund differ in what they hold and how they are governed.
• The Case for Global Equity Diversification covers the full evidence for owning the world.
• Stocks Are Always Risky covers the deep-risk framework and DMS global evidence behind the case for diversifying across countries.
• Why Global Revenue Is Not Diversification covers the domicile effect and correlation data.
• The Tech Bro Portfolio is another case of concentration disguised as diversification.
• The Case for Small-Cap Value covers factor tilts that VTSAX and VT both miss.