MethodologyTax StrategyInvesting & Portfolio24 min readPublished September 2, 2026

We Open-Sourced a TALS Simulator: Why More Harvested Losses Don't Mean More Wealth

In one synthetic zero-alpha simulation, a 250/150 book harvested 7.2x the losses of long-only and ended $427k behind it in median after-tax wealth. Here is why.

Every number in this article comes from a synthetic Monte Carlo simulation you can rerun yourself: talsim v0.4, 200 common paths for the leverage sweep and 100 per scenario, seed 7, zero manager alpha unless labeled otherwise. These are research results conditional on stated assumptions, and none of them is a forecast of any real strategy's performance.

Tax-aware long-short strategies pitch a simple-sounding trade: add short positions and leverage to a taxable portfolio, and the extra trading generates far more realized losses to harvest. The pitch is arithmetically true. In our simulation, a 250/150 book (which the margin model scales to roughly 233/133; more on that below) realized 7.2 times the gross losses of a long-only harvesting portfolio. It also finished the decade a median $427,000 poorer than that long-only portfolio on the same market paths, and beat it on 19% of them.

Both facts fit in one sentence because they are answers to different questions. Gross harvested losses measure activity. After-tax terminal wealth measures what you keep. Between the two sit wash sales, netting rules, loss-usability limits, financing and borrow costs, turnover, active risk, margin requirements, and the liquidation tax bill at the end. We built an open-source simulator, talsim, to make that entire chain of accounting visible, and this article walks through what it shows.1

This is the reproducible companion to our TALS primer, which covers what these strategies are, the research case for them, and who should consider them. Here we run the machine.

Five different numbers that all get called tax alpha

Marketing materials for loss-harvesting strategies tend to quote one impressive number. The simulator forces five apart, and the article keeps them apart:

  • Gross losses realized. Every deductible dollar of realized loss, before anything nets against it. This is the number that scales dramatically with leverage. (Losses the wash-sale rule disallows are tracked separately; their value moves into replacement-share basis rather than vanishing.)
  • Net realized result. What survives after the portfolio's own realized gains eat their share. A high-turnover book realizes gains too; in our baseline the moderate books realized net gains over the decade while the heavily levered ones carried net losses into liquidation.
  • Tax benefit used. The modeled federal tax saved under the configured rates and outside-gain schedule: losses offsetting outside gains, plus the $3,000-per-year ordinary-income deduction.7 A loss that offsets nothing this year is a carryforward, an interest-free IOU from your future tax returns, worth less than the same loss used today.
  • Deferral. Tax postponed rather than avoided, mostly by declining to realize gains. Krasner and Sosner showed this quiet mechanism, deferring short-term gains on long positions, supplies a surprising share of TALS tax benefits.4
  • Liquidation tax. The bill when the strategy ends and deferred gains come due. In Goldberg, Cai, and Schneider's 130/30 model, liquidation cuts pre-liquidation tax alpha roughly in half.5

The experiment

The baseline run holds everything constant except leverage. Five books, from long-only to 250/150, traded on the same 200 simulated market paths (common random numbers, so every book faces the same sampled shocks; that removes draw-to-draw noise from the comparison and leaves sampling and model uncertainty in place):

  • $1,000,000 starting capital, 10 years, 36 synthetic stocks;
  • quarterly rebalancing and loss harvesting, lot-level HIFO;
  • wash-sale rules enforced in the accounting ledger itself, both window directions, with disallowed losses moved into replacement basis, and a trading policy that avoids washes by substituting names rather than repurchasing what it just harvested;
  • $100,000 per year of outside short-term gains for the losses to offset;
  • top 2026 federal rates including NIIT (40.8% short-term, 23.8% long-term), no state tax; dividends taxed annually as qualified or ordinary income and excluded from capital-gain netting, so a net capital loss reaches ordinary income only through the annual $3,000 deduction ($1,500 married filing separately);
  • 45 bps management fee, 75 bps stock borrow, 5 bps per dollar traded, payments in lieu of dividends on the short book, and 6% debit interest on any negative cash;
  • maintenance margin at FINRA Rule 4210 floor levels, with a breach forcing real deleveraging;9
  • zero manager alpha, and full liquidation in year 10.

Zero alpha is the assumption everything else stands on, so it is worth a sentence. AQR's own researchers, publishers of the flagship TALS literature, are blunt that tracking error and leverage are only worth taking to the extent they buy expected pre-tax alpha, and that TALS did not evolve as an upgrade to direct indexing.3 Setting expected alpha to zero isolates the strategy from any assumption of profitable stock selection; the differences that remain still include active risk, trading, financing, tax timing, and sequence effects. With any positive alpha baked in, a leverage comparison silently becomes an alpha bet.

One note on method integrity: this simulator has been through three rounds of adversarial line-by-line code review, each a separate AI model prompted to attack the accounting. The first found five accounting and execution defects, the worst of which let harvested losses be repurchased the same day without wash-sale disallowance; the second found that partial wash-sale matches corrupted replacement lots and that payments in lieu ignored the 45-day capitalization boundary; the third found that a step-rounded wash window was disallowing legal 91-day repurchases and inflating the leverage penalty itself. Each round produced a correctness release with regression tests, the discarded numbers are documented in the changelog, the property-based suite caught a further short-side basis error on its first run, and official results are generated in pinned CI with full provenance manifests. Every figure here comes from that corrected, CI-generated run. None of it amounts to a formal software or tax audit.1

What leverage bought, and what it cost

Median after-tax terminal wealth declines at every step up the leverage ladder: $1.62M long-only, $1.50M at 130/30, $1.40M at 150/50, $1.26M at 200/100, $1.13M at 250/150. That last book compounded at 1.3% per year after tax over a decade in which the long-only book compounded at 4.9%, and its 10th-percentile outcome is $638,000. Paired comparisons on common paths make it concrete: 130/30 trailed long-only by a median $118,000 and beat it on 29% of paths; 250/150 trailed by $427,000 and beat it on 19%. Bootstrap 95% intervals on those medians run from about $81,000 to $142,000 behind for 130/30 and $353,000 to $497,000 behind for 250/150, and the win rates carry intervals of roughly 23% to 36% and 14% to 25%. Those intervals measure Monte Carlo sampling noise within this model at 200 paths; they say nothing about whether the model resembles real markets.

BookMedian after-tax wealthPaired median vs. 100/0 (95% CI)Paths beating 100/0 (95% CI)Gross losses realizedTax benefit usedLiquidation tax
100/0$1.62Mbaselinebaseline$765k$111k$180k
130/30$1.50M-$118k (-$142k to -$81k)29% (23% to 36%)$2.43M$157k$119k
150/50$1.40M-$165k (-$223k to -$126k)26% (20% to 33%)$3.15M$185k$127k
200/100$1.26M-$324k (-$387k to -$251k)26% (20% to 33%)$4.70M$235k$165k
250/150*$1.13M-$427k (-$497k to -$353k)19% (14% to 25%)$5.54M$263k$170k

Medians across 200 common-random-number paths (seed 7), $1M start, 10 years, zero alpha, full liquidation, talsim v0.4.0. Intervals are bootstrap (paired median) and Wilson (win rate) sampling intervals within the model; they do not measure model error. *250/150 is the target book; the FINRA-floor margin model runs it as roughly 233/133.

Meanwhile the loss engine works as advertised, and cleanly: with the trading policy substituting names instead of repurchasing what it just harvested, the wash-sale ledger disallowed nothing at all on these paths. Gross deductible losses grow from $0.77M at long-only to $5.54M at 250/150. But the tax benefit used reaches only about $263,000, 2.4 times the long-only figure, from 7.2 times the loss generation. The bottleneck is arithmetic: losses first net against the portfolio's own realized gains, and what remains can only offset the $100,000 of outside gains that exist each year plus $3,000 of ordinary income. Everything else becomes carryforward or waits for liquidation. In this baseline configuration, gains to offset are the scarce resource, and loss realization outruns them at every leverage level.

The costs that pay for that loss engine compound with gross exposure. At 250/150 the median path pays roughly $112,000 of stock borrow, $194,000 of payments in lieu of dividends, $67,000 of transaction costs, and $80,000 of dividend taxes over the decade, against $49,000 of management fees. Under Publication 550, payments in lieu on shorts held under 46 days are not deductible as investment interest; the model capitalizes them into cover basis only for shorts closed within that window, and gives longer-held payments no tax benefit at all, a deliberate conservatism.7 Even the long-only book shows a cost line worth noticing: staying fully invested while paying fees and taxes from cash produces about $36,000 of margin debit interest, the price of running at 100% without a cash buffer. A small cash reserve or a sell-to-fund policy would remove most of that charge; it is a funding choice of this baseline.

Risk scales alongside. Median tracking error rises from 2.0% to 19.6%, median max drawdown from 33% to 56%, and annual turnover from 0.5x to 5.9x. The margin model is explicit: a 250/150 book fails a FINRA-floor maintenance test before its first trade (the requirement is 107.5% of starting equity), so the engine keeps its 100% net core and shrinks the long/short extension to the largest feasible size, roughly a 233/133 book, and any later deficiency forces real deleveraging with transaction costs and tax consequences.9 Real brokers set house requirements above the percentage floors (and the rule adds per-share minimums for cheap stocks), which would bind sooner.

The liquidation-tax column shows deferral working as designed, and then coming due: the long-only book pays the largest median terminal tax bill, about $180,000, against $119,000 to $170,000 for the levered books. The gap is widest at 130/30 and 150/50 and narrows at the highest leverage, where a much larger gross book carries more unrealized gain into the unwind. The low-turnover book carries a decade of unrealized gains into the final year; the high-turnover books already realized and paid tax on most of their gains along the way. Deferral is a real benefit, but it is a loan from the tax authority, and full liquidation is the day the loan is called.

The conclusion moves with the fact pattern

A single scenario proves little, which is why the simulator reruns the whole ladder under five predefined fact patterns on common paths. They are the five we chose to test, and they do not cover the parameter space:

  • No outside gains. The usable tax benefit collapses to roughly $8,000 to $11,000 of tax saved over the whole decade, regardless of how many millions in losses the book realizes. That is close to the ceiling the ordinary-income deduction allows: $3,000 a year at 40.8% is worth at most about $1,224. If you do not have gains, a loss factory manufactures inventory for a customer who never arrives.
  • A one-time $500,000 gain in year 3. Benefit used rises steeply with leverage (about $205,000 at 250/150, four times the long-only figure), because a big gain arriving mid-path is exactly what a loss engine is for. Median wealth still declines at every leverage step: the benefit never outruns the costs and risk that produced it.
  • An alpha scenario, calibrated to +75 bps at 150/50 and scaled with configured active gross exposure, so 130/30 gets about 45 bps, 200/100 about 150 bps, and 250/150 about 225 bps, delivered through the return-predicting signal. That is a leverage-friendly assumption, and it narrows the penalty without reversing it: the best levered book (150/50) beats long-only on 36% of paths, with a 95% interval of roughly 27% to 46%. The result that would pay for leverage is alpha, which is precisely why a simulator must report alpha and tax effects separately instead of blending them into one “after-tax return.”
  • Higher costs (95 bps fee, 175 bps borrow, 15 bps trading). The 250/150 median ends at $847,000 and 200/100 at $993,000, both below the money they started with. Elm Wealth's independent simulation reached a similar destination by another road: in their zero-alpha base case, fees consumed most of the modeled tax advantage.6

The spread across these panels is the finding. Khang, Paradise, and Dickson measured about 300 bps of dispersion in loss-harvesting tax alpha across investor circumstances, with roughly 60% of the variation driven by investor characteristics rather than markets.2 The productive question for any TALS pitch is therefore conditional: given your gain schedule and its character, your tax rates, your costs, your exit plan, and your own belief about alpha, what does the distribution of fully liquidated after-tax outcomes look like?

Estimate it for your numbers

The charts above are one fact pattern. The calculator below reads a precomputed grid of 900 talsim cells (five books across five outside-gain levels, three cost tiers, two alpha assumptions, three horizons, and two federal brackets, 100 common-random-number paths each) and rescales the dollar figures to your starting capital. It answers the same question as the article, conditioned on your gain supply, costs, and exit horizon: what does the distribution of fully liquidated after-tax outcomes look like, and how often does the levered book end ahead of long-only on the same market path?

Three things stand out as you move the controls. The usable benefit rises with outside gains and then flattens once the book already harvests more than you can absorb, while costs keep rising with leverage regardless. The cost tier moves the wealth line more than the alpha toggle does: at 150/50 on the grid's $1M, 10-year, top-bracket, 10%-gains cell, going from the low to the high cost tier costs about $160,000 of median wealth, while adding 75 bps of alpha recovers about $50,000. And across all 720 levered book-cells in the grid, only two end ahead of long-only at the median, both with alpha on, low costs, and the 24% bracket.

Where leverage clearly pays

A clear benefit means the levered book ends ahead of long-only at the median, on identical market paths, after full liquidation and all costs. A weaker but still useful standard is that the tax ledger alone is positive: the extra benefit used plus the lower liquidation bill exceeds the extra costs, so the only thing left to pay for is the book’s own return, which is a question about alpha rather than taxes. The grid answers both.

What each dial does

Every figure below is the 150/50 book on the grid’s $1 million, top-bracket, 10-year cell with base costs and zero alpha, moving one dial at a time from a 10% outside-gains ratio.

  • Outside gains. From no outside gains to 20% of capital a year, the median shortfall narrows from about $221,000 to $139,000, and benefit used rises from $9,000 to $229,000 against roughly $236,000 of total costs. The benefit flattens past 10% because the book is already harvesting more than the gains can absorb.
  • Costs. The high tier (95 bps fee, 175 bps borrow, 7% debit) widens the shortfall by about $131,000; the low tier (25 bps, 40 bps, 5%) narrows it by about $30,000. No other dial moves the result as far.
  • Alpha. The 75 bps assumption recovers about $52,000. Extrapolating linearly, the 150/50 book breaks even at roughly 80 to 310 bps of annual alpha depending on horizon, cost tier, and gain supply, with the low end requiring institutional pricing and 20% gains.
  • Horizon. The shortfall is about $58,000 at five years, $162,000 at ten, and $512,000 at twenty. Costs and variance compound; the benefit does not keep pace.
  • The upside tail. On the best tenth of paths the levered book finishes about $148,000 ahead, and it beats long-only on roughly a quarter of paths. Leverage widens the distribution and lowers its center.

The ledger explains why the center drops. At the 10% cell the 150/50 book paid about $124,000 more in costs, used $81,000 more tax benefit, and owed $57,000 less at liquidation, so the tax and cost accounting nets to roughly $14,000 in leverage’s favor. The rest of the $162,000 median shortfall is the book earning less than long-only before any tax effect. A zero-alpha extension adds variance, and the median of a wider distribution sits lower; in the published sweep the mean terminal wealth of the 150/50 book also trails long-only, by about $184,000 against a median gap of $219,000.1 AQR’s own defense of the strategy says the same thing from the other side: “Meaningful risk (TE) combined with zero or negative expected return (alpha) is never a good idea, whether or not the strategy has tax benefits.”14

Under the weaker standard, the tax ledger turns positive in a narrow region. At zero alpha and the top bracket, benefit used covers total costs for the 130/30 and 150/50 books at the low cost tier with outside gains of at least 10% of capital a year, over five- and ten-year horizons; at base costs only at 20% gains over five years; never at the high tier; and never for the 200/100 and 250/150 books at base costs over ten years or longer. The practical reading is that the tax mechanics can pay for a modest extension if the gain supply is large relative to the account and the pricing is institutional, and that the larger extensions need alpha to justify themselves in every cell.

Six fact patterns, scored

Fact patternWhat the grid saysWhat the published research saysVerdict
Recurring short-term gains of 10% or more of the account every year (hedge-fund or trading K-1s, options income), at institutional pricingTax ledger positive for 130/30 and 150/50; median wealth still behind at zero alphaGoldberg, Cai and Schneider: 4.41% a year of pre-liquidation tax alpha with ample short- and long-term gains, about 40% less without short-term gains. Sosner, Krasner and Pyne: most of the benefit is character, and it assumes losses find same-character gains at once.Clear benefit from the tax side, if the pre-tax strategy is one you would own anyway.
A concentrated low-basis position you must sell downOutside the grid; the model has no legacy positionMalkin, Selwitz, Cai and Goldberg: a 200/100 book cut the concentrated weight to 5% or less within ten years in all 380 historical scenarios, earning about 1.34% a year after tax and costs against holding the stock. Sosner and Krasner: a 130/30 transition kept about 45 cents more after-tax wealth per dollar moved over ten years than a tax-agnostic long-only switch.Clear benefit, because the baseline is paying the tax now or holding the risk. The shorts cannot be the stock itself under section 1259.
A single large gain in a known year (business or property sale)Benefit used quadruples at 250/150 in the $500,000 scenario; median wealth falls at every leverage stepNamed as a use case by advisers; no academic quantification found.Conditional. Size a modest book to the gain and keep it running afterward; unwinding to collect the losses realizes the deferred gains.
Belief in the long-short factor strategy before tax75 bps recovers about $52,000 at 150/50; breakeven 80 to 310 bpsAQR: tracking error with zero expected alpha is “never a good idea”; a 2026 working paper finds pre-tax alpha raises the tax benefit with leverage and horizon.The condition every other row depends on. Without it, the median investor pays for variance.
Never paying the deferred gains (step-up at death, charitable exit)Adding the liquidation tax back leaves the 150/50 book roughly $200,000 to $340,000 behind, because it realized its own gains along the way while long-only deferred moreGoldberg: liquidation halves tax alpha, but short positions cannot be bequeathed. Elm Wealth values the step-up at about 0.44% a year over ten years.Helps, and helps long-only harvesting at least as much. Not a rescue for the extension.
A long holding periodShortfall grows from $58,000 at five years to $512,000 at twentyGoldberg: post-liquidation after-tax active return falls with leverage above 150/50.Runs against leverage in this model. Deploy an extension for a defined job, not as a permanent holding.

Grid figures: $1 million, 150/50 unless stated, top bracket, base costs, zero alpha, ten years. Research figures carry their own assumptions; see sources 5, 11, 12, and 13.

Is direct indexing enough?

Harvesting comes in rungs: an index fund that harvests nothing, a direct-indexed account that harvests inside a long-only portfolio, and a long-short extension on top of one. Everything above compares the top rung against the bottom one. The question that decides whether an extension earns its keep is narrower: does the rung in the middle already make as many losses as you can use?

For a while it does, and then it stops. AQR’s simulations put direct indexing’s realized net loss near 13% of invested capital in the first year, high single digits in the second, and mid to low single digits after that, with cumulative net losses averaging about 30% of the initial capital and topping out around year eight. Those runs hold capital flat by construction, and the same paper notes that systematic contributions or a charitable giving plan raise what direct indexing can produce.18 That gives a usable test. An account still taking regular contributions keeps buying fresh basis, so the loss engine stays fed and the extension has less incremental work to do. A static account facing years of large realized gains is where direct indexing runs dry, and where making more losses requires short positions.

The second half of the test is what the extension costs where you would buy it. Kitces puts TALS manager fees at roughly 100 bps or more of the extension size, on top of a net borrowing spread near another 100 bps, so a lightly levered 130/30 lands around 60 bps of the original portfolio while a 300/200 can reach 350 to 400 bps, with the practitioner range running from about 100 bps to over 400 bps.17 Our base cost tier, 45 bps of fee and 75 bps of borrow, sits at the optimistic end of that range, and the grid shows the cost dial moving the wealth line further than the alpha dial. A quote at the high end of the market has to be paid for by tax benefits or alpha before the extension breaks even with the rung below it.

Which reduces to one inequality, evaluated over your holding period rather than a calendar year:

PV(usable tax savings+credible alpha)  >  PV(fees+financing+trading+unwind tax+price of added variance)PV\big(\text{usable tax savings} + \text{credible alpha}\big) \;>\; PV\big(\text{fees} + \text{financing} + \text{trading} + \text{unwind tax} + \text{price of added variance}\big)

Usable is the operative word on the left: losses that meet gains of the same character in the same year, not gross losses harvested. Both sides should be filled in with the numbers you would defend to a skeptic, at the pricing your manager quotes you and the alpha you would underwrite without the tax story attached. If the inequality only holds under the base case in the pitch deck, it has not been tested.

My recommendation

Leverage in a tax-aware book provides a clear benefit in two fact patterns. The first is a taxable investor whose other holdings throw off short-term gains of at least a tenth of the TALS account every year, who can get institutional pricing, and who would own the underlying long-short strategy without the tax pitch. Sizing matters more than the leverage ratio: a $1 million 150/50 book beside $200,000 a year of short-term gains is a different proposition from a $5 million one beside the same gains, which is why AQR’s own work finds that hedge-fund and derivatives investors are the ones with systematic short-term gains to absorb.15 The second is a holder of a concentrated low-basis position who has decided to sell it down, where the comparison is against a tax bill due now rather than against an index fund.

For everyone else, the modeled answer is that long-only harvesting, whether inside a fund or a direct-indexed account, captures most of the tax benefit at a fraction of the cost, and the extension buys a wider distribution with a lower center. That includes the investor with long-term gains only, the investor who may need to liquidate within a decade, and the investor at retail pricing, which is where most of the recent growth sits: AQR’s tax-aware assets reached $68.8 billion at the end of 2025, and two custodians have since capped leverage or raised financing rates for the strategies.16 If you are in one of the two fact patterns, match the extension to the gain supply, start at 130/30 or 150/50, and run your own numbers in the calculator above with the cost tier your manager actually quotes, or rerun the engine live in the talsim explorer with the alpha you would defend.

What the simulator deliberately leaves out

talsim is a research model, and its omissions are part of the result. The tax accounting is a simplified federal approximation: one wash-sale group per ticker, when the real rule reaches spousal accounts, controlled corporations, and IRAs, where a washed loss is not deferred but permanently destroyed.78 Short-sale character rules are collapsed to short-term. Tax savings accrue to a zero-return side account instead of compounding, which understates the value of benefits that arrive early or in size. The universe is 36 stocks harvested quarterly; production books hold hundreds of names and trade far more often, which changes substitution quality, harvest capacity, and wash-sale exposure in ways this run does not test. The year-10 full liquidation is one exit assumption among several; Goldberg, Cai, and Schneider report that liquidation alone cuts modeled tax alpha roughly in half, so an estate or perpetual-hold plan would change the picture.5 The market is Gaussian by step, with no jumps, volatility clustering, delistings, borrow recalls, or capacity limits; the trading policy is a transparent heuristic rather than a risk-model-constrained optimizer. Tax-aware optimization at production quality is hard; Moehle, Kochenderfer, Boyd, and Ang is the reference treatment of the convex-optimization approach.10 What a transparent toy buys you is the ability to see every moving part, which a black box, by construction, does not.

Questions to ask anyone selling you harvested losses

  • What does this strategy return at zero alpha, after all costs?
  • Show me distributions, percentiles, and paired comparisons against a passive baseline, not the average or the best backtest.
  • How many of my actual gains, short- and long-term, will these losses offset in each of the next five years, after netting against the strategy's own realized gains?
  • What happens at liquidation, and what is the plan for exit?
  • What are the all-in financing, borrow, and payment-in-lieu costs at my leverage level?
  • How close does the book run to maintenance margin in a drawdown, and what happens when it gets there?
  • Which results in the pitch come from tax mechanics, and which come from assumed alpha?

Key takeaways

  • Gross losses are activity; benefit used is money. In our zero-alpha simulation, 7.2x the harvested losses bought 2.4x the realized tax benefit, and the 250/150 book ended a median $427,000 behind long-only on identical market paths ($1M, 10 years, full liquidation).
  • Gains to offset are the binding constraint. Levered books first absorb losses with their own realized gains; with no outside gains at all, the decade's usable benefit fell to roughly $8,000 to $11,000.
  • No leverage level beat long-only at the median in any of the five scenarios, including the alpha scenario (75 bps at 150/50, scaled to 45 to 225 bps across books), where the best book won on 36% of paths.
  • Costs compound with gross exposure. Borrow, payments in lieu, trading, and dividend taxes reached roughly $453,000 over ten years on the median 250/150 path at baseline cost settings.
  • Deferral is a loan that liquidation calls. The long-only book's median terminal tax bill ($180,000, against $119,000 to $170,000 for the levered books) was the largest, because it deferred the most along the way.
  • Leverage runs into margin math. 250/150 fails a FINRA-floor maintenance test before its first trade; the model keeps its net exposure and shrinks the extension, running it as roughly a 233/133 book. Real house requirements are stricter.
  • Leverage pays in two fact patterns. Recurring short-term gains of at least a tenth of the account each year at institutional pricing, in a strategy you would own pre-tax; or a concentrated low-basis position you have decided to sell down. In the grid the tax ledger turns positive only in the first, and only for 130/30 and 150/50.
  • Reproducibility is the product. Every chart regenerates from a config and a seed; path-level results, manifests with checksums, and regression tests for past defects ship with the repo.

How Summitward helps

Tax-Loss Harvesting Calculator

Value the loss lots you already hold at your own federal and state rates, net them against your realized gains, and see what a harvested dollar is actually worth before anyone sells you a loss engine.

Open the TLH Calculator

Frequently asked questions

Does this simulation prove TALS strategies lose money?

No. It shows that in one controlled synthetic setting, with zero alpha and full liquidation, leverage reduced median after-tax wealth while multiplying harvested losses. Real strategies argue for positive expected alpha from factor exposure, real investors differ in gain schedules and exit plans, and published research finds meaningful benefits for investors with steady short-term gains. The simulation demonstrates which assumptions the conclusion depends on, so you can ask about yours.

Why simulate at zero alpha when managers expect alpha?

Because the two claims are sold as one product. A tax benefit is verifiable mechanics; alpha is a forecast. Pricing them separately tells you what you are paying for each. If a strategy only works with its alpha assumption switched on, it is an active-management decision, and it should compete with every other use of your risk budget on those terms.

How does the model handle wash sales?

Two independent layers. The accounting ledger enforces the rule itself: any loss with a replacement purchase inside the window, in either direction, is disallowed, added to the replacement shares' basis, and its holding period tacks, whatever the trading policy does. Separately, the policy avoids washes the way real managers do: it will not harvest a freshly bought name, it waits out the window before re-entering, and it redistributes blocked exposure to substitute names, and partial matches split replacement lots share-for-share with basis transfer and holding-period tacking. The window is an exact elapsed-day comparison, so a repurchase one quarter (91 days) after a loss sale is correctly legal. On the shipped experiment paths the compliant policy left the ledger nothing to disallow; the enforcement exists for noncompliant trade lists and finer cadences, and disallowed amounts are always reported as their own line.

What would make the leverage worthwhile in this model?

Some combination of: recurring short-term gains of at least 10% of the account a year that outrun the strategy's own realized gains, institutional pricing, and alpha above the 45 to 225 bps tested here, since the 150/50 book breaks even at roughly 80 to 310 bps depending on the cell. A longer horizon does not help in this model; the shortfall grows with time. A step-up or charitable exit removes the liquidation bill for both books and leaves the levered one behind, because it realized more of its own gains along the way. The one clear case the grid cannot test is a concentrated low-basis position being sold down, where the published research finds a benefit against paying the tax now.

Can I run my own numbers?

Yes, three ways. The calculator above covers the inputs that change the answer without installing anything. The talsim explorer reruns the engine live in a browser: pick a book and a starting scenario, set outside gains, an alpha assumption up to 300 bps, a three- to ten-year horizon, and your own fee and borrow rates, and it runs 10 to 50 fresh paths against long-only on the same seeds, which is the quickest way to find the breakeven alpha for your costs. For arbitrary gain schedules, cost assumptions, or exposure presets, install the package with pip install pytalsim(it imports as talsim). The package runs 56 tests including regression and property-based tests for previously found accounting defects, and regenerates every figure here from two commands. Change the gain schedule, rates, costs, alpha, or exposure presets in one config object and rerun; a manifest records every assumption, the git commit, and output checksums beside the results.

Related guides

Sources

  1. talsim v0.4, open-source TALS research simulator (MIT license, on PyPI as pytalsim): configs, seeds, manifests, path-level results, changelog, and the code behind every figure; interactive explorer at talsim.streamlit.app. github.com/engineerinvestor/talsim
  2. Kevin Khang, Thomas Paradise, and Joel Dickson, “Tax-Loss Harvesting: An Individual Investor's Perspective,” Financial Analysts Journal 77(4), 2021 (~300 bps dispersion across investors; ~60% driven by investor characteristics). tandfonline.com
  3. AQR, “Our Research into Tax-Aware Long-Short Investing: Clarifying a Few Important Things,” January 2025 (TALS is distinct from direct indexing; leverage and tracking error need alpha compensation; gain deferral is central). See also Liberman, Krasner, Sosner, and Freitas, “Beyond Direct Indexing: Dynamic Direct Long-Short Investing,” Journal of Beta Investment Strategies, 2023. aqr.com
  4. Stanley Krasner and Nathan Sosner, “Loss Harvesting or Gain Deferral? A Surprising Source of Tax Benefits of Tax-Aware Long-Short Strategies,” Journal of Wealth Management, 2024. aqr.com
  5. Lisa Goldberg, Taotao Cai, and Ben Schneider, “A Guide to 130/30 Loss Harvesting,” Journal of Asset Management 25, 2024 (open access): 2.7x the capital losses of long-only over the first decade; 4.41%/yr pre-liquidation tax alpha in the sufficient-gains case; liquidation cuts it roughly in half. springer.com
  6. Victor Haghani and James White, “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: A(nother) Look at Long/Short Direct Index Tax-Loss Harvesting,” Elm Wealth, April 13, 2026. elmwealth.com
  7. IRS Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses: wash sales (30 days before or after, spouse, controlled corporation, IRA), the $3,000 capital-loss limit, short-sale rules, and payments in lieu of dividends. irs.gov
  8. IRS Revenue Ruling 2008-5: a loss on stock repurchased in an IRA within the wash-sale window is disallowed and the IRA's basis is not increased. irs.gov (PDF)
  9. FINRA Rule 4210, Margin Requirements: 25% maintenance on long margin securities; the greater of $5 per share or 30% of market value on shorts at $5 and above. finra.org
  10. Nicholas Moehle, Mykel Kochenderfer, Stephen Boyd, and Andrew Ang, “Tax-Aware Portfolio Construction via Convex Optimization,” Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 189, 2021. stanford.edu (PDF)
  11. Nathan Sosner, Stanley Krasner, and Ted Pyne, “The Tax Benefits of Relaxing the Long-Only Constraint: Do They Come from Character or Deferral?” Journal of Wealth Management 21(4), 2019: a 130/30 relaxed-constraint book at 4% active risk shows a 58 bps annual active tax benefit against a 26 bps cost for long-only active, assuming losses immediately offset gains of the same character elsewhere. aqr.com (PDF)
  12. Nathan Sosner and Stanley Krasner, “Tax-Efficient Portfolio Transition: A Tax-Aware Relaxed-Constraint Approach to Switching Equity Managers,” Journal of Wealth Management 23(4), 2021: with 40% to 60% built-in gains, a 130/30 transition “allows the investor to achieve an additional 45 cents of after-tax post-liquidation wealth for every dollar transitioned” over ten years versus a tax-agnostic long-only switch. aqr.com (PDF)
  13. Eric Malkin, Ari Selwitz, Taotao Cai, and Lisa Goldberg, “Loss harvesting strategies tax efficiently diversify concentrated stock,” Journal of Asset Management 26(5), 2025: a 200/100 strategy reduced concentrated active weight to 5% or less within ten years in all 380 historical scenarios, with an average after-tax active return of 1.34% a year net of transaction, financing, and management costs versus holding the stock. ideas.repec.org
  14. AQR, “Experience Matters: Addressing Five Common Criticisms of Tax-Aware Long-Short Strategies” (May 27, 2025): all-in financing “in the ballpark of 80bps annualized” for a 200/100 book at an overnight rate of 4.33%, and the quoted sentence on tracking error without alpha. aqr.com
  15. Nathan Sosner, Michael Gromis, and Stanley Krasner, “The Tax Benefits of Direct Indexing: Not a One-Size-Fits-All Formula,” Journal of Beta Investment Strategies, 2022: investors with allocations to hedge funds and derivatives are the most likely to have systematic short-term capital gains. aqr.com
  16. Michelle Celarier, “Will the Booming Tax-Aware Hedge Fund Business End in Tears?” Institutional Investor (June 3, 2026): AQR tax-aware assets of $68.8 billion at year-end 2025. Custodian limits: AdvisorHub, “Schwab Imposes New Limits on RIAs Using Long-Short Strategies” (April 23, 2026), and reporting of Fidelity’s financing repricing effective May 1, 2026. institutionalinvestor.com
  17. Ben Henry-Moreland, “Tax-Aware Long-Short Investing: Not Just A Tax Overlay, But A Risk-Managed (Active) Investment Strategy,” Kitces.com (June 17, 2026): manager fees of roughly 100 bps or more of the extension size, a typical net borrowing spread near 100 bps, and carrying costs of about 60 bps of the original portfolio at 130/30 against 350 to 400 bps at 300/200. The other cost layers in this article’s stack (payments in lieu, trading, dividend taxes, debit interest) are modeled by talsim rather than drawn from this source. kitces.com
  18. Joseph Liberman, Stanley Krasner, Nathan Sosner, and Pedro Freitas, “Beyond Direct Indexing: Dynamic Direct Long-Short Investing,” Journal of Beta Investment Strategies, 2023, reporting the direct-indexing loss decay estimated by Israelov and Lu, “Optimized Tax Loss Harvesting” (2022): about 13% of capital in year one falling to mid and low single digits by year three and beyond, cumulative net losses averaging just under 30% of initial capital, in simulations with no contributions or redemptions. aqr.com

Author disclosure

Educational content, not tax, legal, or investment advice. The simulation is synthetic and its tax accounting is a documented research approximation, not tax-return-grade accounting; consult the repository's README for the full list of simplifications before citing any figure. Summitward built and maintains talsim, published under its Engineer Investor open-source account. Summitward has no position in, or business relationship with, any TALS manager named here.

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